The All Blacks trailed 24-6 at halftime - which was at that point the largest halftime deficit in their history. The All Blacks came out with a different approach in the second half as they took the direct route, going up the middle through the heart of the French defence and coming away with three tries. With the score at 27-25, the defining moment in the match came through Romain Ntamack’s stunning counter-attack from his own in goal in the 62nd minute - where he left Richie Mo’unga and Jordie Barrett trailing. This moment changed the test - the French had seized back momentum and wing Damian Penaud ultimately delivered the killer blow, snaffling David Havili’s pass with 12 minutes remaining.
The resulting scoreline was grim reading for the All Blacks, but our first thing to note here is that the match, for a period, was much closer than it suggests.
No Romain Ntamack
The man who produced the defining moment of the test, Romain Ntamack, will not be playing on Saturday in Paris. The brilliant first five-eighths has a knee ligament injury that ended his World Cup before it even began. It’s not just Ntamack that the French will be without, it is his combination with halfback Anton du Pont that Les Blues will sorely miss. Nine-ten combinations allow backlines to take advantage of the platform their packs lay for them and French supporters will be hoping Matthieu Jalibert can fill the rather large boots as Ntamack’s understudy.
No Jordie Barrett
Jordie Barrett has been a revelation for the All Blacks since his move to midfield and like du Pont and Ntamack, the All Blacks could be without a reliable combination in the backline. Barrett is nursing a knee injury that could rule him out of the opener against France.
That means Reiko Ioane will likely pair with Anton Leinert-Brown in the centres. Leintert-Brown is a worthy second option but doesn’t bring the kicking game that Barrett does.
It’s not only Barrett’s powerful boot out of the hand but his ability to bring the All Blacks into scoring range from the tee. He can turn penalties in the 50-60m range from the posts into three-point opportunities. World Cup games are often separated by fine margins and goal kicking could well be a deciding factor in the opener.
Jo Schmidt
Jo Schmidt was brought into the All Blacks’ camp as a selector and then attack coach in 2022 and has become an influential figure. A Six Nations-winning coach three times, Grand Slam winner, and 2018 World Rugby Coach of the Year with Ireland - Schmidt knows what it takes to beat the unpredictable French. He coached against them seven times and lost just once.
Schmidt was not a part of the All Blacks set-up in the 2021 loss to France, but he is one of the key cogs in the black wheel and his expertise will be invaluable come September 9.
Cards were a factor then - even more so now
Yellow and red cards change rugby matches.
Ardie Savea’s ruck infringement following Ntamack’s breakout put France firmly back in the driver’s seat in 2021 - and in a World Cup opener, a card for either side could easily be the difference. Ten minutes with your opponent down to 14 can be all that is needed to wrestle back momentum or pile on scoreboard pressure and the All Blacks need no further reminding of this. Their worst-ever defeat by any nation came at the hands of the Springboks at Twickenham - a match they played 42 minutes of with 14 men following Scott Barrett’s second yellow card. Much like goal kicking, good discipline is set to be crucial at the Rugby World Cup.
