KEY POINTS:
By next month it will be impossible to slip out for a quiet beer without hearing chatter about who should make the All Black World Cup squad.
Debating All Black selections is a national pastime. In World Cup years, it's a whole new sport, with every man and his dog attempting to identify the as-yet-undiscovered test superstar who is going to emerge from nowhere and reach October a household name.
Everyone loves guessing the bolter. But come July 22, when Graham Henry reveals the 30 players he's taking to France, it's unlikely there will be any new caps.
Even allowing for this management panel's capacity to spring surprises, the chances of a new cap going to France are probably more infinitesimal than unlikely.
Since coming into the job a month after the last, doomed World Cup campaign in 2003, Henry has selected 63 players.
The net has been cast wider than in any previous regime.
And that's because Henry has been indulged in a manner none of his predecessors ever were. In May 2005, Henry and his assistants, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith, had their contracts extended through to 2007.
Following the heartache of 2003, the New Zealand Rugby Union made winning the 2007 World Cup an overriding priority.
There were big plans for the All Black brand. There was an awareness that future broadcast and sponsorship negotiations would be all the smoother if the All Blacks were world champions. Above all there was a desperation to let the heroes of 1987 rest in peace and harvest a new crop of legends.
Henry, Smith and Hansen signed their contract extensions with one explicit goal - win the 2007 World Cup. Unlike those who had gone before, they were granted a licence to look beyond the present and plan for the future.
No one would have been happy if the All Blacks had dropped a bucket load of tests, but there was an acceptance within the NZRU that they had to grant the coaches some leeway.
If a couple of games were lost along the way in the name of preparation and development, so be it.
With that remit, the panel were able to plan two years ahead.
They could set objectives for each individual campaign knowing that come June 2007, they were going to flick the selection switch from experimental to serious.
The latter half of 2005 and 2006 were about identifying the potential options. That's when they were able to select players such as Campbell Johnstone and Soseni Anesi, get a feel they weren't quite ready and move on to the next option which, in the case of the former, was the capable Neemia Tialata.
That's the way it was. There was room for trial and error. James Ryan, Chris Masoe and Conrad Smith were trialled and looked the goods while Steven Bates, Casey Laulala and Jerome Kaino didn't quite convince.
By the end of last year, Henry and his team had extensive dossiers on every serious All Black contender, knowing the focus in 2007 would be honing those options by building the combinations.
As a consequence there just doesn't appear to be an opportunity for any uncapped players to force their way into the selection frame in the final year of the World Cup cycle.
Henry has spent the last two years trying to determine exactly which players could handle test football.
The challenge this year is not identifying the bolter among the 30 - it is working out which of the 63 already capped players Henry will shoe-horn into his 30-man World Cup squad.
The coaches need to believe fully in all 30 players and can't afford to discover, in France, that someone isn't quite All Black material.
That happened in 2003 when, following an injury to Tana Umaga's knee, it was discovered that his heir-apparent, Ma'a Nonu, was too green to cope.
Nonu won his first cap in June that year against England and endured a difficult night. He wasn't seen again until he came off the bench to replace Umaga in the opening game of the World Cup.
Nonu was shaky in the next game against Canada and coach John Mitchell lost confidence in the chosen back-up and opted to field Leon MacDonald out of position at centre.
As four million people are acutely aware, that move didn't go so well and the presence of Nonu in the 2003 squad will stand as unforgettable proof there are hidden dangers in selecting new blood so close to a World Cup.
But against the example of Nonu there is alternative evidence to say the rewards to be had from selecting the unknown can outweigh the risks.
In 2003 Mitchell also gave debut caps to Mils Muliaina, Dan Carter, Brad Thorn and Joe Rokocoko who all impressed at Super 12.
He picked the uncapped Corey Flynn and Ben Atiga in his World Cup squad and at the end of 2002 he introduced Ali Williams, Keven Mealamu, Rodney So'oialo, Steve Devine and Daniel Braid.
Williams, Mealamu, Muliaina and Rokocoko were all first choice players by the World Cup.
Carter and Thorn played significant roles, too, while So'oialo, Devine and Braid all saw game time at the big event.
Mitchell kept the selection door open until the night before he announced the squad and the fact that all the late recruits - bar Devine and Thorn - are in the running to feature again in 2007 suggests he exercised sound judgement.
If Mitchell had worked along similar lines to the current management group, Muliaina, Rokocoko, Carter and Nonu might not have made it to Australia.
With that in mind, the question has to be asked whether there is a danger of New Zealand leaving some uncapped magic behind when they go to France.
Richard Kahui was on the radar at the end of last year but injury has ravaged his season, while his Chiefs team-mate, Liam Messam, has also found it hard to build on last year's stunning provincial campaign.
Stephen Brett and Kieran Read at the Crusaders have been sensational, but both need more experience and a Junior All Black campaign will serve them well.
The players who didn't tour at the end of last year and who are making big claims for inclusion are Troy Flavell, Kaino, Derren Witcombe, Greg Rawlinson, Braid, Doug Howlett, Isaia Toeava and Jimmy Cowan.
All are capped and all except Braid have played under the current regime.
The World Cup bolter is dead, and while that might deny the nation a bit of fun at the pub, it might reward them in October with a long-awaited bit of silverware.
