The reality is this: there will be no change in the immediate future and neither should there be.
Fans and media are a bit stirred up by the fact 15 of the All Blacks from the Ian Foster campaign and two others (Atu Moli and Alex Hodgman) have headed overseas or retired this year. In addition, nine of what might be called second-tier players yet to win a cap are also heading overseas.
That’s 26 leading players (see end for an entire list), more than enough for a team and full bench. But, as with many things in life, it’s not as bad as it sounds.
Of the 13 current All Blacks, three (Beauden Barrett, Ardie Savea, and Sam Cane) have arranged things so they will be back and available for the All Blacks later in the year.
Another four (Shannon Frizell, Fainga’anuku, Richie Mo’unga and Goodhue) have contracts that will allow them to return to New Zealand afterwards and still be of an age to chase the black jersey.
Of the nine others, few apart from Highlanders lock Josh Dickson and Blues lock/loosie Tom Robinson have come under serious consideration for higher honours – and most are of an age where it makes sense to cash in on their rugby credentials.
The exception is the Chiefs’ Alex Nankivell, playing very well for crack Irish team Munster, and whose midfield skills will be missed.
Otherwise it’s not like we are badly leaking young players liable to play for the All Blacks but yet to.
When you also factor in six All Blacks re-appearing after injury or being little seen at top level (Quinn Tupaea, Brett Cameron, Stephen Perofeta, Cullen Grace, Folau Fakatava and Sevu Reece), the depth issue doesn’t look quite so pressing.
Take Reece as an example. To get back into the All Blacks, he will have to get past Mark Telea, Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa and Caleb Clarke – and that’s assuming Will Jordan moves to fullback and not counting Fainga’anuku who, on the evidence of his last game, isn’t in top form for Toulon.
The slight air of panic has come with the loss of Barrett and Mo’unga.
However, Barrett will be back later and, really, it’s time the All Blacks invested seriously in other talent at No 10, with Damian McKenzie and Perofeta leading the way.
I mean, name the All Blacks first five playing overseas right now (not Mo’unga) who would stroll into the team. Thought so.
If there is an issue concerning rugby’s production line, it comes at the Under-20 level.
New Zealand won the first four world titles from 2008-2011 before South Africa beat them in the final in 2012.
Since then – fourth in 2013; third in 2014; won in 2015; fifth in 2016; won in 2017; fourth in 2018; seventh in 2019, their worst placing since the tournament began. It wasn’t played in 2020 and 2021; New Zealand finished seventh again this year.
It moved former All Blacks coach Steve Hansen to say: “Our high-performance department... has to be squirming at our record at Under-20 level. Are we getting that business right? I don’t think so. If we’re not winning Under-20 World Cups, we’re not producing world class players at a younger level to bring into this team [the All Blacks].”
If there is an adjustment to be made, maybe it is an agreement between Rugby Australia and New Zealand Rugby (NZR) for more Kiwis to be selected in Australian teams (and vice-versa) and for New Zealand players in Australia to be eligible for All Blacks selection, provided they are playing Super Rugby Pacific. That would need enhanced co-operation from the Aussies – not much in evidence these days.
But it makes sense and it might bring players like the much-injured former All Blacks prop Moli (now playing for the Western Force), still only 28 and a class prop, back into calculations.
In 2008, in his Herald on Sunday column, former skipper Sean Fitzpatrick called for overseas players selection because he felt defections had caused a drop in depth and quality here. By 2015, he’d changed his mind, saying NZR sabbaticals gave players money, a change in lifestyle and allowed them to return to play for the All Blacks.
Fitzy made a vital addendum – the All Blacks need to keep winning to preserve their legacy and the selection status quo.
Winning has been a lot more difficult lately – which is why the focus should shift to Under-20 level first, before any knee-jerk recruiting of overseas players.
ALL BLACKS OVERSEAS OR RETIRED 2024
Dane Coles, Nepo Laulala, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Jack Goodhue, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Beauden Barrett, Brad Weber, Pita Gus Sowakula, Alex Hodgman, Atu Moli.
SENIOR PLAYERS OVERSEAS 2024
Alex Nankivell, Andrew Makalio, James Blackwell, Scott Gregory, Fetuli Paea, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Josh Dickson, Tom Robinson, Bryn Gatland.
