Ian Foster can still select newbies and “bolters”. But will he? Photo / Photosport
Ian Foster can still select newbies and “bolters”. But will he? Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
There comes a point in the life cycle of any team when you begin to wonder: is it time for a clean-out?
I’m talking All Blacks and Tottenham Hotspur, the perennial Premier League under-achievers who have sparked the creation of new words in the English language: “spursy” and “spursiness”- meaning a side that looks pretty, plays prettily, builds up expectations with a few good wins and then falls over with the finish line in sight, losing to teams they should chew up and spit out.
I’ve been a Spurs supporter for many years, captured by their dash and style as a boy, staying with them for decades of promising much, but winning much less. Time for change.
Their Italian coach recently had his gallbladder out and increasingly looks like they extracted his self-belief as well. Their best player, Harry Kane, is off contract mid-next year. Manchester United are said to want him, meaning his nominal value of £90m ($175m) could rocket up to somewhere near £300m ($583m), which is what they told Real Madrid when they knocked on the door. That’s enough to throw out the bathwater and some of the babies as well.
Sometimes a Hercules-like cleaning of the stables is required. It’s not really “rebuilding”, but more rebirth. New coach, new style, new players to fit the style.
Which brings us to the All Blacks. Does this team, often beaten and criticised last season, need a bit of a player clean-out to win the World Cup? Would new talent lift them to a new level?
For the first time, we know the coach leading the All Blacks to the Cup will not be the coach afterwards, even if he wins the thing. Ian Foster has been freed from any need to look to the future. So an extremely likely consequence of Foster not being coach from 2024 is that he will place even more faith in a conservatively-selected team of veterans, ultra-focused on the loss of their coach after France.
Regular readers of this column may have noticed repeated laments that some of the All Blacks’ younger brigade have not been enjoying much game time. The emphasis appears to have been more on securing the head coach’s position than creating competition for places or investing in the future.
Yet 2024 will see the biggest exodus of senior All Blacks since 2015 when nine - including two of the all-time greats, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter - exited. This time, we know Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Brodie Retallick, Brad Weber, Shannon Frizell, Dane Coles, Ardie Savea and Beauden Barrett will all be gone - though Barrett is negotiating a return and Savea has said he’ll be back in June 2024 and will play through the 2025 season, during which he’ll turn 32.
All Blacks Sam Whitelock, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane of the All Blacks look on during last year's clash against the Pumas. Photo / Photosport
Others may retire - Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane, TJ Perenara - and some may be squeezed out of squad selection. Like the midfield - where seven All Blacks are contesting three or four spots - and the wing, which sees Caleb Clarke, Mark Telea, Sevu Reece, Leicester Fainga’anuku and Will Jordan all competing for not enough spots, even before the emergence of Shaun Stevenson.
That’s a powerful lot of horse flesh and experience lost - but that’s not Foster’s problem now. The new coach will bring in new thinking and new selections anyway, no bad thing.
But what if, when Foster’s job was swinging in the wind last year, he’d been replaced at that stage? Would the new coach have been content to take all the old stagers or might he have (a) looked for new, inspiring blood and (b) mixed things up a bit with an eye to 2024 as well? After all, if the All Blacks do poorly in 2024, he may find the noose that fitted Foster’s neck fits his too.
Foster can still select newbies and “bolters”. But will he? There’ve been few signs of that so far; some will argue the best possible squad has already been assembled. So here are some assumptions and questions from this unprecedented All Blacks coaching situation:
Sam Cane will remain captain and number one No 7, even though many think there are at least two better candidates. Jordan will stay at wing and not, as many want, at fullback.
Why, if they are retiring/heading to Japan, would Coles/Frizell be included in the World Cup squad? Retallick and others have earned their valedictories but don’t hooker and blindside need thrustful selections and future-proofing? So does prop, where some of the old guard are looking more old than guard.
Halfback and first five are looking particularly bleak post-2023. Of course, Beauden Barrett and Smith must be selected — even if Barrett, on form, is the third-choice No 10 at present behind Mo’unga and Damian McKenzie, and maybe even behind Stephen Perofeta... if we ever had a chance to see him play there.
It’s a fascinating situation. It remains to be seen whether Foster’s Last Stand will be a powerful incentive for his team or the distraction some claim. My money’s on the former.
But will it distract him from some of the selection choices that need to be made? Choices that might enhance the team if they were made with half an eye on 2024 and beyond.
