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Home / Sport / Rugby / Rugby World Cup

Michael Guerin: How to make some seriously easy cash

Michael Guerin
By Michael Guerin
Racing Editor·NZ Herald·
1 Sep, 2011 09:30 PM5 mins to read

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Israel Dagg for top tournament tryscorer. Photo / Getty Images

Israel Dagg for top tournament tryscorer. Photo / Getty Images

Overseas preoccupation with other sports gives savvy Kiwis the chance to capitalise on superior knowledge, writes Michael Guerin.

What you are about to read seems almost impossible but it could indicate the easiest way for rugby-mad Kiwis to make some money out of the World Cup. And all you have to do is pay attention.

Last week, a full 30 hours after the Herald had broken the news Hosea Gear had been dropped for the World Cup squad, more than half the bookmakers operating on the tournament still had Gear favourite to be the top tryscorer.

There's more.

Just last Sunday, after Keiran Read had been invalided out of the Tri-Nations decider and was in doubt for the World Cup campaign, at least two Australian bookmakers still had him as the $2.65 favourite to be the leading All Blacks try-scoring forward.

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That's despite the fact captain Richie McCaw could play all seven games and Read only four, missing the easybeats.

As the World Cup approaches, the internet is awash with World Cup betting markets on everything from when your team will get ousted, who will oust them to who will win and who will score the most tries for every major team.

But the beauty of this for even casual New Zealand rugby followers is that most of the bookmakers giving you these odds know nothing about rugby.

Bookmakers have to offer what they call "product" so punters have more reasons to bet. If one bookmaker doesn't offer a raft of World Cup options, customers might jump ship to another which is just a click of the computer mouse away, so many of them simply copy each others' odds.

But the biggest bookmakers in the United Kingdom are too bogged down with their main breadwinner - soccer - to have any clue what is happening in New Zealand.

Ditto for the Australian bookmakers, who will rightly be obsessed with Aussie rules and the NRL playoffs for the first month of the World Cup.

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So you, sitting here reading this, in little old rugby media-saturated New Zealand, will only need to keep up your daily rugby diet to know more about what is going on at the RWC than most bookmakers in the world.

Call it the Hosea Gear Factor.

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Now being able to back Hosea Gear when you know he isn't going to be in the World Cup may sound useless, but all bookmakers set their markets to percentages and if you know something they don't know you can get massive advantages.

Point in case: last week you could back Israel Dagg to be the top tryscorer in the tournament at $41 even though he could be the most attacking player in the most attacking team. Even for a $10 punter that adds up pretty quickly.

Other odds included Cory Jane at $11 and Isaia Toeva also at $41, all massive prices for what are now likely to be the All Blacks three starting wing options.

The other huge advantage New Zealand rugby followers have when they're looking to make a buck is the weather.

In 2005 when the Lions toured New Zealand, they went to Invercargill to play Southland and you could back Southland with a 28.5-point start.

As any Kiwi rugby follower knows, you don't beat Southland by 29 points in Invercargill in the middle of winter. But most bookies don't know where Invercargill is.

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The result: Lions beat Southland 26-16. Southland lost, but you didn't if you backed them with that 28.5-point start.

One of the best markets for New Zealanders to attack will be the total points in a game and points start option.

These markets are already set for many matches (the All Blacks are giving Tonga a 67.5-point start next Friday), but most bookies won't change them unless they get a serious influx of money.

So if you live in Waikato and know it is hosing down on September 18 you might be keen to place a few dollars that the Wales-Samoa game won't be a high-scoring one.

While most Kiwis will bet with the local TAB if they intend putting their money where they mouth is, those who fancy using inside knowledge can simply check out the internet for hundreds of bookies worldwide willing to take you on. Or exchanges like Betfair where you bet directly against other fans, which opens itself to massive bias and some silly prices.

Of course, unless you are a professional, sports gambling should only be used for fun and to make a few bucks. Only fools bet more than they can afford to lose.

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But you might never get a better chance to back your judgment on our national game than in the next seven weeks.

Michael Guerin's World Cup bets:

1: Israel Dagg - for top tournament tryscorer - All Blacks have an easy pool, Dagg looks set to play and you could still back him at $11 this week.

2: Richie McCaw - to be top tryscoring All Black forward - set to play almost every game because of the loose-forward injury situation. How he is still second favourite behind the injured Read defies belief.

3: Wales - with a 14-point start over South Africa on Sunday week. Wales kick their goals and can score tries, while South Africa are robotic, so this could be a tighter game than many think. Plus it could always rain...

Latest NZ TAB market on the final

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$1.60: New Zealand.
$4.50: Australia.
$7.50: South Africa.
$12: England.
$20: France.
$35: Ireland.
$50: Wales.
$100: Samoa.
$150 or more the rest

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