Wynne Gray: Surface rust goes too deep

You could explore dozens of theories about the All Blacks' inability to deal to Wales, but you would need a psycho-analyst to delve into the minds of those who wore the black jersey in Sydney.

Even then the answers might be as fuzzy as the team's tackling.

It is a lame line to say this was the World Cup wake-up call the All Blacks needed. That was uttered in 1999 after the "out-passioned" defeat in Sydney.

If the All Blacks were not awake to what was needed against Wales after the pre-match spiel from the coaching staff about the demands on the side and nods to the opposition strengths, then the surface rust has got into the chassis.

The All Blacks continue to look as though they do not have enough match kilometres on the clock. A diet of training sessions, simulated match tactics and a weak draw has not honed the iron will necessary to get through this tournament.

Natural talent - the All Blacks and French have a mortgage on that component - will let them escape defeat as they did against an inferior side such as Wales, but it has to be nailed to a stronger structure.

All week the coaches and staff had banged on about the questions Wales would ask at the tackle line and the breakdown; about the attacking thrust they would provide.

Did John Mitchell, Robbie Deans and Reuben Thorne believe their own utterances? Did they ever consider that an under-strength Wales would challenge them? Did they - heaven forbid - tell their troops to hold the ammunition, or were they just plain arrogant?

Were they in the sort of carefree mood that allowed Deans to shuffle off for the mid-week Super 12 selection meeting in Wellington?

During the test there was little evidence of leadership from Thorne, a flanker still struggling with his game and shown up badly by his young opposite, Jonathan Thomas. If anything, Justin Marshall delivered the come-on sermons.

Marshall brought some grit to his play, a commodity that passed by most of his colleagues.

Under the cosh at halftime, the All Blacks had time to reassess and change their game; to ask their forwards to work the closer channels, recycle possession and draw the Welsh into combat.

Three more times after the break, when Wales scored a converted try and kicked two penalties, Thorne should have been an insistent voice.

There was scant sign that his instructions were heeded, or even delivered. Thorne said later he never feared defeat and it always appeared that superior fitness and a bit of ball would get the All Blacks home.

But another flimsy defensive line, lack of respect for possession and a reliance on flutterball against the Springboks will not make for a happy quarter-final.

The All Blacks continue to resist rucking, insisting that referees are going to card players who do not lift and remove bodies near the ball.

But other sides have escaped any great censure for boots on bodies.

Under pressure, Leon MacDonald could not convert vital goals and he missed tackles.

Spencer was on planet Carlos and a tackle-free zone, Aaron Mauger could not reproduce his Tri-Nations comeback form, and the pack scarcely hit any rucks and mauls.

Cool thinking disappeared when MacDonald was asked to pack on the side of the scrum for a move when Jerry Collins had just left injured.

Wales meant to shock with their tactics. They had qualified for the playoffs, they rested some key players and coach Steve Hansen ordered them to have a real crack, like Samoa against England.

He knew the New Zealand rugby psyche and their ideas on Wales. He picked that they would anticipate a damage-limitation exercise rather than a ball-handling assault.

The Welsh scrum crowded the All Blacks and did not let them get a proper hit. They were old tactics Hansen learned in Canterbury, and Sunday night was the chance to second-guess ex-colleague Deans.

In June, Wales were overwhelmed by the All Blacks, but they have worked on their strength, fitness and ball skills. It took them through 60 minutes of thrilling defiance until they hit the wall.

The quarter-final selection screws have been turned on the All Blacks. Kieran Crowley and Mark Shaw are in Melbourne for debate with Mitchell and Deans.

First up are the medical checks. Can Collins recover from damaged ribs, and if not, who replaces him? Rodney So'oialo has been too loose with the ball, but does it emasculate Ritchie McCaw if he is shifted to the boot of the scrum?

Should Ali Williams and Chris Jack be restored in locking tandem or is that too much down on power against the beefy Boks?

Is Spencer fit or favouring a shoulder? Can Mauger be summoned again with Daniel Carter in such robust form? Can a half-fit Tana Umaga make a difference? Was ditching Ma'a Nonu a mistake, or can MacDonald be used again?

After a month of freewheel cruising, the All Black gearbox has developed a serious graunch.