Editorial: And now, let the rugby battle begin

At last the wait is over. The All Blacks' departure today for Melbourne signals the long-awaited battle for world rugby supremacy is finally on. Across the Tasman, the preliminary talking and taunting are in full swing. Australians, even those normally interested only in other oval-ball codes, give every impression of savouring this World Cup as they did the Olympics. Yet the build-up in this country has been curiously low-key. Among rugby followers and in the All Black camp, there has been no breast-beating, unlike the entrance to the last tournament. Grim experience has fostered a sense of reality that may yet be the All Blacks' best ally.

There is, in fact, good reason to approach this World Cup with a degree of trepidation. For the first time in five tournaments, New Zealand are not the favourite to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. England's playing record over the past year leaves no doubt they deserve this billing - and a burden that All Black teams stacked with talent have often found too difficult to carry. Never was this more so than the ghastly implosion against an unheralded France in the 1999 semifinal. Memories of that grisly occasion should have erased any hint of complacency.

Other factors have contributed to the low-key atmosphere. The fact, for example, that the All Blacks will canter through group matches against Tonga, Wales and, reportedly, second-string teams from Italy and Canada. Effectively, New Zealand's first game of significance will be a quarter-final in Melbourne, and that is still a month away. Conceivably, the All Blacks will not be fully extended until a semifinal, probably against Australia, on November 15.

Indeed, the first month of the World Cup smacks of a phoney war. It is a state that does little for the tournament - or for the world game. For year after year, the International Rugby Board has talked of promoting the code in countries deemed ripe for development. It has the example of soccer, in which giant strides have been made in Asia and Africa. Yet rugby's World Cup will continue to boast little in the way of surprise. Countries such as Japan and Romania have, regrettably, made little progress and some have slipped backwards. Others, notably Samoa, are below strength because of financial pressure on players to pledge their allegiance to their club or province.

These are matters the International Rugby Board must tackle. Rugby fans, let alone the uninitiated worldwide television audience, soon tire of lop-sided matches and games between sides lacking expertise or excitement. Equally, the benefit for the players is minimal, especially those in the small number of teams that can realistically hope to win the cup.

This year, that honour will fall to New Zealand, England, France or Australia. The triumphant team will claim not only the world crown but exercise a powerful influence on how the game is played. Australia's win in 1999 paved the way for a regimented, league-style game by numbers. Romantics will surely hope for a win by New Zealand or France - and a game that emphasises pace, panache and scintillating counterthrust. France, however, is set to strike a formidable if tactically taut England in the semi-finals. That leaves New Zealand as the likely champions of an expansive style.

This year's Tri-Nations championship suggested that the All Blacks are ready to play a scintillating game to stunning effect on the ultimate stage. But their performances will have been dissected by opposition coaches eager to prey on potential weaknesses - the inexperience of some of the backs, perhaps, or a doughty, rather than domineering, forward pack. To win, the All Blacks must have devised counters for what their opponents will throw at them, and have surprises to toss back. Their preparation appears to have covered most bases. Well enough, we hope, to win a second World Cup.