Big names set to kiss their French dreams goodbye

This time next week a few more players will move closer to being eliminated as potential World Cup All Blacks.

Probably gone already from the 39 players named to play this month are Marty Holah, Greg Rawlinson, David Hill and Craig Newby. Clinging on for the meantime are Clarke Dermody and Jimmy Cowan.

The Irish series and this week's clash in Buenos Aires are the last opportunities for fringe candidates to keep their dreams alive.

With 14 months until the World Cup starts, the selectors will ditch the experimentation theme after the Argentinian test. Come the Tri Nations and right through to the World Cup, they will work with 30-man squads that only include players who have a realistic chance of making it to France.

Holah, Rawlinson, Hill and Newby were involved against the Irish but it seemed their selections were more a reward for loyalty than a reflection of their ability.

They are solid players - good guys who won't let you down - but it would be hard to argue that either Rawlinson, Hill or Newby are genuinely international class. They are close but there are others who are closer and all three are only ever going to feature in the big time if there is a major injury toll.

Holah is a fish in a very different kettle. Last week, when forwards coach Steve Hansen was proclaiming Holah to be the best ball poacher in the business, it wasn't the obligatory justification of an unusual selection.

Holah can't match the likes of Chris Masoe, Jerome Kaino, Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oialo for impact with ball in hand or power in the tackle. He can, however, deliver more turnover ball - a priceless skill in defence-dominated test rugby.

The problem for Holah, though, is that while he has a skill-set that interests, he's not got enough tricks in his bag to persuade the panel to start him ahead of either Richie McCaw or Masoe at openside.

He needed to prove emphatically in Hamilton that the strategy of playing two fetchers was worth keeping - his only chance of featuring in black is as an auxiliary openside alongside McCaw or Masoe.

The game never really opened up to assess properly the merits of that ploy but the limitations it imposed upon the lineout were obvious.

Holah has little left to pin his hopes to as there seems little prospect of him getting another run between now and September next year.

He is now, at best, a wild card option that could make it to France through injury or if the selectors conclude, on the strength of 42 minutes last week, that Holah's inclusion will offer the All Blacks a significant point of difference.

The likes of Dermody, Cowan, probably Andy Ellis, Andrew Hore, James Ryan and Junior All Blacks Corey Flynn, John Afoa and Kevin Senio are in a different category again, with their chances of selection dependent on how they fare between now and September next year.

The All Blacks will take three hookers and three halfbacks. Keven Mealamu, Anton Oliver, Piri Weepu and Byron Kelleher will, barring injury, fill four of those six berths.

Hore is currently the next hooker in line but Flynn is close. Cowan is the third halfback but Ellis was in the frame until injury denied him and the young Cantabrian, if he recovers in time, might be used during the Tri Nations to push his claim.

For the others in this group, it is all about the final mix. If the panel decide they need five props, then Dermody and Afoa have a chance to join Tony Woodcock, Carl Hayman, Greg Somerville and Neemia Tialata.

If room can be found for four specialist locks, then Ryan will take his seat next to Chris Jack, Ali Williams and Jason Eaton.

The plan, at this stage, is to give those injured players such as Nick Evans, Ryan, Sione Lauaki and Conrad Smith an opportunity during the Tri Nations if they are fit enough.

Lauaki is probably penned in for France, as is Smith if he can show no ill-effects from his broken leg.

Lauaki's destructive running and improving work rate make him a certainty alongside McCaw, Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo, Masoe and probably Troy Flavell.

That leaves Jerome Kaino and Mose Tuiali'i with much to prove during the Tri Nations. They fall into the same category as Ma'a Nonu, Casey Laulala, Evans, Luke McAlister, Sam Tuitupou, Isaia Toeava and possibly Scott Hamilton - who will remain in the picture right up to the final selection.

Not everyone in this group can be accommodated. Dan Carter, Aaron Mauger, Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald, Doug Howlett, Joe Rokocoko, Rico Gear, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Smith are among the best in the world and should all travel.

Throw in three halfbacks and that's 12 places already sewn up. Even if one of the specialist wingers is deemed surplus to requirements, that leaves a maximum of three places open.

There are tough calls to be made and it will depend on who makes the most compelling case.

And time is running out. "We want to replicate World Cup conditions on our end-of-season tour," said assistant coach Wayne Smith. "It would be foolish to say that will be the definitive selection as some guys will be injured. But I'd bet that the 30 we take away at the end of the year will be very close to the 30 who go to the World Cup."