The All Blacks World Cup squad is named on Monday. Photo / Photosport
Liam Napier analyses who is set to make the All Blacks 33-man World Cup squad - and the big-name players who could cruelly miss out.
Late injuries could play a significant role in shaping the All Blacks’ World Cup squad.
Veteran lock Brodie Retallick and midfield contender Braydon Ennor suffered knee injuries in the first half of the All Blacks 23-20 victory over the Wallabies in Dunedin on Saturday afternoon.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster gave little away about their prognosis – other than to say Ennor was sorer than Retallick – but post-match scans are believed to have revealed both injuries are relatively serious.
In a potentially cruel setback Crusaders centre Ennor is in serious doubt and could be ruled out of the tournament while Retallick may be sidelined for four-to-six weeks – a timeframe that threatens his involvement in the All Blacks first two pool matches against France and Namibia, and the warm-up test against the Springboks at Twickenham.
Those blows could force Foster and fellow All Blacks selectors Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt to reshuffle their 33-man World Cup squad set to be named in Napier on Monday evening.
The All Blacks were likely to take four locks – Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Retallick and Tupou Vaa’i – to the global showpiece. Retallick’s setback may alter those plans, with a conversation now needed about potentially carrying additional locking cover.
World Cup injury replacement rules add another layer of complexity to squad selection. Teams can only carry 33 players at any time. Replacement players are included at the expense of others for the remainder of the tournament.
The All Blacks may feel they have enough flexibility in their loose forwards to cover Retallick’s initial expected absence, with blindside Shannon Frizell comfortable in the second row after featuring there for the Highlanders this year.
But if the All Blacks determine they want specialists, Josh Lord could be called in as the fifth lock. Lord only played one test for the All Blacks this season but the Chiefs lock impressed starting alongside Barrett against the Pumas in Mendoza.
Ennor’s injury, while cruel timing, could save the All Blacks a difficult selection decision in the midfield. Ennor impressed the All Blacks this season with his form for the Crusaders. He then played two tests off the bench before starting against the Wallabies. His ability to cover centre and wing appeals but the severity of his injury could pave the way for David Havili, who made his return from a hamstring injury with Tasman on Friday night, to return to the squad alongside Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane and Anton Lienert-Brown.
While the All Blacks have the vast majority of their World Cup squad cemented, Foster acknowledged Saturday’s challenging final home test of the year against the Wallabies would help determine the final fringe selections.
“We name a team on Monday. We went in with a clear plan,” Foster said. “We’ve had that squad in our mind and today was a testing time for evaluating two or three options that we had.”
Those major pressure points are expected to come in the back three, loose forwards and prop.
Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Frizell and Dalton Papali’i are locked in the loose forward mix. Luke Jacobson’s versatility, particularly his ability to provide specialist No 8 cover for Savea, could rubber stamp his inclusion, too.
Samipeni Finau or, possibly, Ethan Blackadder’s involvement may hinge on whether the All Blacks decide to include a fifth lock. The highly regarded Blackadder suffered a further recent setback with another calf injury that may hurt his chances after minimal rugby this year.
In his debut against the Wallabies in Dunedin, Finau gradually warmed into his work to claim a late try and seize his chance at blindside.
“Samipeni finished over the top of them a little bit which was nice to see from a young man,” Foster noted of the Tongan-born 24-year-old Chiefs prospect.
In the outside backs the All Blacks will consider whether they have room for four or five finishers. Will Jordan and Mark Telea are certainties as the starting wings. Emoni Narawa impressed on debut against Argentina before a lingering back injury prevented any further involvement in this year’s four tests. The Chiefs wing can, however, play on both edges while his strong defensive work is another tick. Including those three likely leaves Caleb Clarke and Leicester Fainga’anuku contesting one spot.
While Shaun Stevenson scored a try on debut concerns about his defence and physicality without the ball are likely to count against him – along with the All Blacks’ ample cover at fullback in the form of Beauden Barrett, Jordan and Damian McKenzie.
Prop is another area set to feel the squeeze, with Fletcher Newell’s comeback after five months on the sideline last weekend sealing his inclusion. Tamaiti Williams and Ofa Tuungafasi’s ability to cover both sides of the scrum will be valued. Nepo Laulala therefore faces a nervous wait as the All Blacks assess Joe Moody’s status.
Despite Finlay Christie failing to nail his fourth start the All Blacks appear unlikely to deviate from their three halfbacks used throughout the Rugby Championship which could leave the luckless Brad Weber on the outer.
Ahead of his third World Cup Aaron Smith offered an insight into the tension all players confront as they await the news.
“We travel home and find out Monday,” Smith said. “It’s all about what you’ve done in the last six to eight weeks to put yourself forward to be selected for the pinnacle event in our sport. You’re hopeful and reflective. I’ll be around my family with my phone on loud praying to hear some good news. It’s out of your hands now.”
Props: Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Tamaiti Williams, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala.
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Dane Coles.
Locks: Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Tupou Vaa’i.
Loose forwards: Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Shannon Frizell, Dalton Papali’i, Luke Jacobson, Samipeni Finau.
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Finlay Christie, Cam Roigard.
First-fives: Richie Mo’unga, Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett.
Midfielders: Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Anton Lienert-Brown, David Havili.
Outside backs: Will Jordan, Mark Telea, Emoni Narawa, Leicester Fainga’anuku.
Former All Blacks' frustrations began before he coached his first All Blacks test.