Rugby: Auckland calculate semifinal prospects

Hosea Gear grabbed two tries, to put him on 10, second behind Hawkes Bay's Zac Guildford. Photo / Getty Images

It's calculator time in the national championship, but given the events of the past few weeks you would be loath to start tapping the pad for at least one more week.

Three places are open for the Air New Zealand Cup semifinals with two rounds remaining.

There are six contenders - and of those Tasman are all but gone, and Auckland need other results to go their way. But at least Auckland are still punching away, which might surprise those who watched their awful back-to-back defeats to North Harbour and Tasman late last month.

The run-in to the playoffs is a promoters' dream, if one designed to have the coaches tossing and turning.

Ink in defending champions Canterbury - and almost certainly for a home semifinal - after their 50-26 belting of Manawatu.

Southland are the most vulnerable of those in the top four. Top of their must-do list is beating Taranaki, with a bonus point, on Friday night because their final game is in Christchurch, and no one emerges from that stronghold unscathed. In six home games so far, Canterbury have run in 28 tries; in five away matches to date, Southland have crossed the line just nine times.

Wellington look good for the semifinals, but Hawkes Bay, even though they sit second, will be wary.

They host Canterbury on Thursday night. If things go pear-shaped, they face a potentially tricky visit to Whangarei to finish off.

Might there be a quiet satisfaction at HQ in Wellington that three of the four earmarked before the competition began for the chop next season are sitting in the last four, Tasman being the exception?

Wellington eased past one of them, Northland, 41-7, in Whangarei yesterday, but it was 7-all until, shortly before halftime, Northland determined to make David Holwell's 100th game for the union something to remember.

But an intercepted try by hooker Ged Robinson, and quick thinking by Alby Matthewson for a solo try to get Wellington 27-7 clear 20 minutes from the end made sure of the win.

In-form wing Hosea Gear grabbed two tries, to put him on 10, second behind Hawkes Bay flier Zac Guildford, whose hat-trick on Thursday night took him to 12.

Poor Tasman, done 41-0 by rampant Southland on Saturday, look to have run out of steam after a valiant campaign, and so too Bay of Plenty, who had been in the top four throughout the season, until last week. North Harbour did for their ambitions with a rousing 28-7 win at Albany, their best performance of the season and the Bay's most disjointed.

There was urgency, purposefulness and terrific support play from Harbour as they gathered just their fourth win of the competition, but it lifted them from 13th to 10th.

Bay of Plenty arrived knowing they had to win to stay in the semifinal frame, but injuries to key halfback Junior Poluleuligaga and wing Ben Smith in the first five minutes, followed by reserve halfback Josh Hall had them in disarray.

Two tries by Nalu Tuigamala - a late call-up at halfback for the injured Chris Smylie - and another by Luke McAlister on his return from injury, running a reverse angle after first five-eighths Mike Harris made a break, helped Harbour to a barely believable 25-0 halftime lead.

"The best half of rugby we've played all year, so it's very pleasing," captain Anthony Boric said.

Bay of Plenty gave it heaps in the second half but Harbour weren't about to fall over.

They had several notable performances, the perky Tuigamala - nephew of You Know Who - Harris and left wing Rudi Wulf in the backs; flankers Tom Chamberlain and Boric; and hooker Mike Mayhew in the forwards.

But none shone brighter than lock James King, who was the lion of the lineout and ran strongly in open play. If the Blues coaches don't snap him up, they'll need a pretty good excuse.

"We're gone now. There's no way we can make it," disappointed Bay of Plenty coach Sean Horan said.

Waikato have won their last four games so they might be scratching their heads this morning to find they're still outside the top four, courtesy of Wellington's win yesterday.

However the Mooloos will take a look at their last two games and figure their chances are better than most.

A last-moment try to wing Tim Mikkelson made certain of the 35-29 win over Otago, and snared a possibly vital bonus point.

* The run home

Canterbury 42 points: v Hawkes Bay (a), v Southland (h). Max poss 52 pts

Hawkes Bay 35 pts: v Canterbury (h), v Northland (a). Max poss 45 pts

Wellington 34 pts: v North Harbour (h), v Tasman (a). Max poss 44 pts

Southland 33 pts: v Taranaki (h), v Canterbury (a). Max poss 43 pts

Waikato 31 pts: v Northland (h), v Auckland (h). Max poss 41 pts

Auckland 30 pts: v Counties-Manukau (h), v Waikato (a). Max poss 40 pts

Tasman 28 pts: v Otago (a), v Wellington (h). Max poss 38 pts