Lee Stensness: Short-term pain is inevitable for Manawatu

My old province Manawatu have been given the green light to play in next year's expanded premier division of the NPC. While this may prove to be a mixed blessing, especially in the short term, survival in that division is absolutely vital for the long term.

Based on this season it appears that the opportunity may have come a little early, or indeed a few years late.

Results such as last week's 47-27 loss to the might of North Otago indicate that the team will not be able to handle the step up, and that the century of points the midweek Lions put on them may not be a one-off during next season's premier division.

It is clear Manawatu badly need an injection of talent. The union has met the other criteria for inclusion such as player numbers, stadium quality and financial solidity but is lacking in the most important area, quality.

Compliance in those other areas will count for little if the team is out of its depth on a week-to-week basis, spectators will stay away and sponsors will lose interest.

Even assuming that they can match other unions financially, it will be very difficult for Manawatu to attract players of sufficient quality because the other unions it will be competing with for players such as Taranaki, Southland, Northland and Hawke's Bay already have better playing rosters and thus better prospects for success - that fact alone will make up the minds of players having trouble deciding.

Overflow players from the five Super 12 franchise base unions are the players all these unions will be targeting. These players will be looking for game time at NPC level to push for a Super 12 contract. The chances of standing out while playing for Manawatu must be significantly less than playing for the other 'minor' unions, simply because the others are more likely to win matches and winning teams get players selected for higher honours. It's that simple, really.

Another factor counting against Manawatu is that it will be the fourth strongest, and therefore the fourth-most influential union in the Hurricanes franchise, meaning its players will not be favoured when it comes to Super 12 selection. Despite what is said publicly, everyone is aware that the base union players receive preference when it comes to close calls between players of similar ability, so again Manawatu is not competing on a level playing field.

So should Manawatu just give up now and accept its fate? Well it won't and it can't. Manawatu's history is too proud and other unions such as Taranaki and Bay of Plenty have shown that it is possible to have success in a non-Super 12 base province.

Those two provinces have spent time in the second division in the past 12 years and both have held the Ranfurly Shield in that period.

Manawatu will need to think outside the square and utilise its natural assets such as educational opportunities to attract up-and-coming players, and proximity to Wellington to attract overflow players, and hope that a core group of players can be established and retained.

The examples are there for Manawatu to follow but it will be a long and at times painful process, especially in the short term. However the alternative is unthinkable - eternal obscurity as an amateur union.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY