How safe is the future of the All Blacks Sevens side? – Tight Five

Andrew Knewstubb of the New Zealand Sevens team is tackled by Mark Roche of Ireland during their ninth-place semifinal match at the Perth Sevens. Photo / Photosport

THREE KEY FACTS

• Ireland have axed their men’s sevens team due to a $34 million financial loss.
• New Zealand Rugby faces a $19.5m deficit, raising concerns about the men’s sevens team’s future.
• The Sevens circuit is under financial strain, with its future uncertain and potential major changes ahead.

A question ...

Just how safe is the New Zealand men’s sevens side? Before this week, you’d say pretty safe, even with a disappointing season on the world series circuit. But Ireland’s axing of their men’s team with immediate effect shows that even national teams are now being considered “nice to haves” rather than imperatives.

There’s no suggestion New Zealand Rugby (NZR) will withdraw their team but the parallels to Ireland are striking.

Ireland are making the call on the back of a $34 million loss in their last financial year – NZR have a deficit of $19.5m as announced last week (although there appears to be no money drain like IRFU+ consuming a lot of the outgoings). Ireland had a poor recent season and were relegated to the second tier, but finished runners-up the campaign before that, so it’s not a decision based on historical results. Interestingly, the Irish women’s team is being retained, thanks to its pathways to the 15s – something it now seems to be accepted the men’s game no longer offers.

An explanation ...

A Sevens world series without a New Zealand men’s side appears unfathomable – but the circuit itself is under major financial strain and reshaping as World Rugby tries to make it sustainable. Having the door opened to the Olympics was supposed to be the making of the sport, but Covid and financial mismanagement have left it in a perilous position and recent announcements of a reform for next year appear to be a last chance saloon, for a World Series anyway.

A prediction ...

With no Commonwealth Games spot anymore, another pinnacle tournament has been removed, and World Rugby seem at a loss as to how to “fix” it. Could the future of sevens be a women’s-only world series, with the men coming together for Olympic qualifying? Or perhaps it gets stripped right back to Hong Kong and a select couple of other tournaments? Regardless, the future of sevens is going to look very different from what went before.

An observation ...

Suggestions the United States could be the landing place for Super Rugby’s 12th team should fill every Super Rugby fan with dread. It’s worrying because it would suggest no lessons have been learned from the Melbourne Rebels saga.

Aussie writer Christy Doran on The Roar wrote that the US is being seriously considered to provide the 12th team to make up for the Rebels as part of the push towards the 2031 World Cup in that country – an event that six years out appears to have major question marks over its viability.

A suggestion ...

If Super Rugby admits them, it would be a huge backwards step – placing a team in a region with no rugby feel, history or fanbase to satisfy the “greater good”. Just like Melbourne. And like Melbourne, the United States fan base have proven they will come out for major rugby events – All Blacks versus Ireland in the US, for example, like Lions and All Blacks tests at the MCG the other way – but they are not going to be able to support a team across 16 rounds of Super Rugby. It’s ludicrous to suggest they could do it. The US aren’t a sleeping giant of World Rugby. A World Cup isn’t going to change that, and neither is a Super Rugby side on their turf.