Cameron McMillan is Deputy Head of Sport for NZME. He has been a sports journalist for 20 years and was on duty in 2011, when the All Blacks put things right.
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Two months from today the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw will be revealed and for the first time the tournament will feature 24 teams.
More teams may mean more blowouts – we’ll find that out in two years – but what we will discover in December is the All Blacks’potential path to the final.
And according to an AI predictor, Scott Robertson’s side would need to get by a 2023 final rematch with the Springboks just to make the semifinals.
Going back to Rugby World Cup 2003, there have been 20 teams divided into four pools of five teams. The top two teams from each pool advanced to the quarter-finals.
Under the new structure at the 2027 World Cup there will be six pools with four teams. The top two teams from each pool advance to the Round of 16, with four best third-place teams – much like we’ve seen in Fifa tournaments.
Twenty-three of the teams have qualified with the 24th spot to be decided after a qualifying tournament between Namibia, Belgium, Samoa and either Brazil or Paraguay.
It’s all a bit “ifs” and “maybes”, but the Herald ran the new structure through an AI tool, based on current world rankings and random drawing to see how the World Cup pools could look.
It spat out quite a strange draw for the All Blacks of four straight tests where they’d be heavily favoured before a quarter-final clash with South Africa.
The All Blacks could potentially face the likes of Fiji, Romania and Portugal in pool play, then get matched with Spain in the Round of 16 before a quarter-final with South Africa, AI predicted.
Not exactly the preparation Robertson would want heading into a tough quarter-final.
With the top five ranked nations being separated across the six groups, and hosts Australia, that means the highest ranked team the All Blacks could get in their group is Argentina.
While the lowest ranked in the current standings would be 12th-ranked Wales.
The All Blacks were handed their first pool defeat at the last World Cup, to hosts France, but Argentina are the only side set to be in band 2 that have ever defeated the All Blacks.
The new Round of 16 will likely see some one-sided affairs. Under our example, Ireland v Portugal, New Zealand v Spain, South Africa v Uruguay are three fixtures where there would be little doubt about the result.
In past World Cup tournaments the quarter-finals saw pool winners face pool runners-up. But having two extra pools means pool winners are on track to square off in the quarter-finals with the All Blacks potentially facing the Springboks.
Fear not All Blacks fans. AI has been wrong before.
