Rugby: Reality check will test All Blacks' risky style

Having brushed the minor impediments of Tonga and Scotland out of the way, the new-look, back to basics, millennium All Blacks team now face a reality check.

The spectre of Australia looms, but there will be no lack of incentive against the Wallabies.

Most of those who played for the All Blacks in the World Cup believe New Zealand had the best assemblage of talent last year and should, rightfully, have gone on to win the cup.

It was a shortage of something unquantifiable - collective spirit, determination, mental hardness, mongrel, call it what you will, that pulled them up tragically short.

Now the same awkward question hangs in the air: is this team going to be any different from the last?

There is no way of knowing the answer to that.

All we know is that Wayne Smith and Tony Gilbert have already succeeded in forging a more realistic set of relationships between themselves and the players, and between the players and the outside world.

Although it is hard to judge these things with any real certainty, it appears that a new level of maturity has been achieved.

The players have a clearer appreciation of what their role is and of who they are actually playing for out there.

In other words, the clean-cut, corporate shell around the team has been replaced by a softer, rather more human atmosphere.

However better the team culture might have become, the stark reality remains that the All Blacks are a high-risk team.

Compared with the Wallabies, and to a lesser extent the Springboks, the New Zealand players have, on average, a considerably higher error rate.

This is what has caused them to come unstuck so many times in the last few seasons.

Wayne Smith is painfully aware of this.

He has a team that is accustomed to creativity and therefore more prone to mistakes. He has to try to make the most of that.

It is interesting, therefore, that he has staked his faith in retaining the truly creative approach, as against Brumbies-style, no-frills dependability.

The star threequarters from the Hurricanes Super 12 side epitomise that quality. They are regular match-winners and occasional match-losers.

They are instinctive, brilliant athletes and when their style of play comes off the result is high-thrill rugby.

This spirit of adventure explains why the Hurricanes are such a drawcard and, if the three preliminary tests are anything to go by, Smith intends to exploit this to the maximum, accepting that the error rate is something he will just have to live with.

Nobody doubts for a moment that the All Blacks backline, perhaps the strongest we have seen for a decade or more, will cause all opposition absolute nightmares if they get enough quality ball. Herein lies the real problem.

The burden on the All Blacks forwards is heavy enough given the immense strength and technical proficiency of all the major competitors these days.

It is increased when they have to continually try to retrieve possession after turnovers as a result of errors by their backs.

The All Blacks can beat anybody with 50 per cent of the ball, but they will not beat the Wallabies with much less than that. If New Zealand have an unbeaten run this year the real heroes will be the forwards and, as any forward will readily tell you, there is nothing new in that.