The period 2020-2027 will likely see a 25% reduction in the number of All Blacks tests played on these shores compared with 2012-2019.
The side is confirmed to play just four of 13 tests at home in 2026.
Japan, the US, Britain and Western Europe are the four key markets.
As New Zealand Rugby intensifies its globalised, commercial strategy to build the All Blacks into a $7 billion brand, it is becoming undeniable that there is a hidden cost to the plan.
New Zealanders, once the only people the All Blacks cared about, are now thesilent victims of a brand growth strategy that is becoming exponentially more focused on Japan, the US, Britain and Western Europe in the quest to find more fans and make more money.
The most powerful statistic that demonstrates New Zealanders are no longer the core focus or most important group in the All Blacks’ brand plan is the 25% reduction in home tests that will be played in the 2020-2027 period when compared with 2012-2019.
In the two World Cup cycles from 2012-2019, the All Blacks played 44 tests in New Zealand, but it is now likely (some scheduling is not yet finalised) that there will be just 33 home tests played between 2020-2027.
The arrival of Covid-19 and its effect on the border settings only accounts for a small part of the reduction, as the rescheduling forced by the pandemic only led to five tests that were supposed to be played in New Zealand either being cancelled or moved to Australia.
It’s the advent of a more globally focused commercial strategy that has been the real driver of the 25% reduction and there is a deeper story buried in the numbers.
In the 2012-2019 period, the All Blacks played three tests in Japan and two in the US, and only once – a Bledisloe test against Australia – did they take a scheduled home game offshore.
In the 2020-2027 period, they will play in the US three times and Japan twice, but (excluding the Covid-19 years of 2020 and 2021) at least four, possibly five “home” tests will be played offshore.
Last year, the All Blacks played what should have been a home fixture against Fiji in San Diego and next year they will forfeit playing in the Rugby Championship to instead tour South Africa, where they will play three or possibly four tests.
The upshot is that the All Blacks will play six tests at home this year, then four in 2026 (Ireland, Italy, France and Australia), and likely just three in 2027 as part of what may be a full Rugby Championship.
The stats get more revealing when the overall mix is considered, with the All Blacks destined to play just four of 13 tests at home in 2026 and that just 34% of all test matches played between 2020 and 2027 will take place on home soil (on the assumption the All Blacks make it to the last four of the 2027 World Cup).
In the period 2012-2019, they played 41% of their tests at home and in the World Cup cycle before that (2008-2011) they played 54% of their games at home (although the number is skewed because the World Cup was hosted by New Zealand).
All Blacks captain Richie McCaw celebrates Rugby World Cup victory in 2011 at Eden Park, a campaign that boosted the number of matches the team played in New Zealand. Photo / Photosport
That ratio of home to away content will continue to slip as the soon-to-launch Nations Cup will commit the All Blacks to playing an additional test in London next year, the US in 2028 and Qatar in 2030.
The pattern is there for all to see, and it vindicated those such as former New Zealand Rugby (NZR) chief executive David Moffett, who warned, in 2021, that this trend would develop if the national body signed a private equity deal with US fund manager Silver Lake.
“Because if they don’t get the return that has been worked out, then they will be looking at ways at which they can and ... the first place they will look at is how many times can we get the All Blacks to play and where they can get them to play,” Moffett said.
“Will it be exhibition matches in the United States, for example? But whether it’s now or in the future you will see the All Blacks playing more games and perhaps more meaningless games and that just devalues the greatest brand in rugby.”
Moffett’s warning about more offshore games is playing out as he predicted, but NZR argues that is not devaluing the brand but growing it.
NZR Commercial general manager Yarnie Guthrie told the Herald that Japan, the US, Britain and Western Europe are the four key markets being targeted to deliver more All Blacks fans and more money.
“They are the top four for us,” he said. “We have almost saturation of rugby activity in the UK and Europe because we go there on a Northern tour every year.
“The job to do in Japan and North America is to create more rugby content. We get our teams playing in those markets with a bit more regularity to enable them to brand-build in a meaningful way.
“We signed a MoU [memorandum of understanding] with the Japan Rugby Union a few years ago and that has seen our teams – the Māori All Blacks, the All Blacks XV or the All Blacks – playing there on rotation.
“And we are looking to create a similar structure as we head towards the 2031 World Cup in America. It probably won’t be with the same regularity, but it is important to have a presence and the Chicago match at the end of this year [against Ireland] is an example.
“That match sold out in two or three days. That just shows the interest. And the big benefits if you get it right.”
But the shift to playing more tests in foreign lands is not just about brand building – it comes with significant commercial benefits as NZR typically lands as much, if not more, ticket income from playing offshore as it would playing in New Zealand.
The kicker, though, is the additional amounts of cash that can be made from merchandise sales.
“To put it into perspective the per head spend in San Diego was six times higher than it is at Eden Park.
“In Tokyo, it was four-and-a-half-times and the only reason it wasn’t more – it could have been 10 times – but we only had one store and there were queues for 2km to get into the merchandise store at the stadium.
Japanese rugby fans invest in merchandise at a match in Tokyo featuring the All Blacks XV. Photo / Photosport
“We just need to have a, ‘build it and they will come’ mentality because if we had six stores operating, they probably would have been all full.”
The cold reality is that NZR, with its ambition to double the current $3.5 billion value of the All Blacks brand and similarly double its $270 million of annual revenue, is seeing fans through a lens of monetary return.
With the typical fan based in the US yielding six times as much as the typical Kiwi fan going to a game in New Zealand, the decision-making stacks against the domestic market being placed at the centre of the commercial strategy.
The All Blacks were once New Zealand’s team, but by the end of this decade it’s not clear what level of support they will have at home or whether the domestic market will be of any interest at all.
