On a tour that has seen New Zealand beat two but not allthree of the Six Nations heavyweights and show a mix of both resilience and mental fragility in doing so, there is only one non-disputable fact to draw from the past few weeks.
While the All Blacks have been mostly but not consistently good in Europe these past few weeks, South Africa have continued on their inexorable rise to world domination, showing they have just about every component part of their game working the way they want it to and that they have the collective experience, strategic nous and technical craft to grind out the victories however they need to.
Hard-fought wins against Scotland and England have elevated the Springboks to No 1 in the world and while there is rightfully some scepticism about the validity of the rankings and their ability to accurately reflect the true hierarchy of the game, there can be no dispute that the Boks are currently the best team on the planet.
The data to support that is now overwhelming. They have only lost two games in 2024. They also won the Rugby Championship.
They have beaten every team they have played who currently sit in the top five – New Zealand, Ireland and Argentina – they have had three players shortlisted as World Player of the Year – Cheslin Colby, Eben Etzebeth and Peter-Steph du Toit – and they are, of course, back-to-back World Cup champions.
The Boks are on track to finish the season – they play Wales this week – with 11 wins from 13 tests for an 85% success ratio. The All Blacks, assuming they beat Italy, will finish 10 from 14 at 71%.
The difference is significant and at the end of Scott Robertson’s first year in charge, the question that will likely dog him and his team throughout the rest of this World Cup cycle, is whether they can close the gap on the Boks.
Wallace Sititi in action against the Springboks. Photo / Photosport
There are three key reasons to believe that they can. The first is the quality and depth of talent in their tight five.
However much rugby is on a crusade to speed games up and create more aerobic contests, it still remains undeniable that raw power, set-piece craft and the ability to weaponise a scrum remain critical factors in winning tests.
The All Blacks have a scrum that is now performing more destructively and consistently than it was when they played South Africa, it’s just they haven’t always been able to persuade match officials of this fact.
Against France, they arguably should have had another four or five scrum penalties – one of which would have come in the build-up to the first French try.
South Africa have a distinct edge in the way they both defend and utilise the rolling maul, but New Zealand’s pack is significantly younger and less experienced and so arguably has more growth potential.
Critically, where the two packs could diverge significantly through the cycle is in their ability to use their tight five beyond the set piece.
New Zealand’s athletes are mobile, comfortable on the ball and contributing more in broken play with Tamaiti Williams and Tyrel Lomax both capable of winning turnovers, beating defenders with their footwork, taking and giving a pass and making effective tackles.
Tamaiti Williams on the charge for the All Blacks against France. Photo / Photosport
In comparison, the Springboks pack looks relatively immobile and under-skilled.
Secondly, the All Blacks suffered a more significant turnover of personnel after last year’s World Cup than the Springboks.
Of the 33 All Blacks who went to France in 2023, nine have either retired or headed overseas and are therefore ineligible for selection.
Only two of the Springboks World Cup squad have retired and because they can pick players who are contracted overseas, they don’t continually have to fret or guess who will or won’t be available to them throughout the cycle.
New Zealand have had to rebuild more extensively and fundamentally since the World Cup and they have also had to do so with a mostly new coaching and management team, whereas the Boks returned director of rugby Rassie Erasmus to the head coaching role post-tournament, giving them a continuity headstart on all fronts.
Thirdly, and maybe most significantly, the All Blacks are likely going to play the Springboks eight times between now and the World Cup.
They will host them twice in New Zealand next year, play a three- or possibly four-test tour in the Republic in 2026 and then a full Rugby Championship in 2027.
This could prove to be a disastrous schedule, New Zealand ending up being psychologically damaged by a better team that repeatedly beats them and undermines their confidence.
But it does feel like such hefty exposure to one another has the potential to benefit the All Blacks more than it does the Springboks.
It’s a simple truth that inferior or emerging teams always learn and grow more when they play teams above their ability.
All Blacks v Italy, Sunday 9.10amLive commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Live match blog at nzherald.co.nz
