Robertson is projecting confidence his side has significantly evolved since July and while results, having lost three times this year, don’t yet reflect that assertion, the All Blacks’ attacking style and personnel have definitively shifted.
Two victories, by one and seven-point margins, in July marked the tense start of Robertson’s tenure. Emotions were high in the coaching box in both those escapes as the All Blacks attempted to grasp Robertson’s new systems and tactics following a management overhaul after the World Cup.
Behind the scenes, all was not well. Friction built to boiling point as, three tests later, Leon MacDonald abruptly departed as the All Blacks attack coach.
While far from perfect, as another second-half fade against Japan last weekend alludes to, the All Blacks attack that England’s suffocating rush defence severely stifled has released the shackles since July.
The All Blacks, seemingly wedded to structured attack against England, now appear much freer. Their attacking movement is wider. There’s an intent to keep the ball alive, manipulate defences, and generate more continuity.
Almost half the All Blacks’ starting team that confronted England at Eden Park could be reshaped this week, too, with Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Sam Cane, Tupou Vaa’i and Caleb Clarke all expected to be promoted at Twickenham.
While Barrett produced a match-winning cameo off the bench to spark the All Blacks’ comeback at Eden Park, Sititi, the revelation of this year, Jordan, Clarke and Cane did not feature in that match.
Finlay Christie and Damian McKenzie started in the halves that night. This weekend, Ratima and Barrett are expected to assume the reins.
England cannot, therefore, bank on facing anywhere near the same team or tactics.
The big question with England is whether they stick or twist on their blitz defence after Flexi Jones’ shock departure.
England hired Jones after he masterminded the Springboks’ rush defence in their World Cup triumph.
Eight months into his influential post with England, though, Jones announced he would exit – he remains on staff in a part-time remote capacity – following an apparent relationship breakdown to leave Borthwick’s coaching team in a state of flux.
Joe El-Abd, Borthwick’s long-time close friend, has replaced Jones as defence coach but he is juggling commitments as head coach of second-division French side Oyonnax until next year.
England, who also lost highly regarded strength and conditioning coach Aled Walters to Ireland, are expected to retain their rush defence as it has formed a strong sense of identity comparable to Brendon McCullum’s Bazball approach with the English cricket team.
As they return to Twickenham, for the third time in their past 16 tests, aggressive defence will be central to the statement performance England are chasing. But will their defence be as connected?
Borthwick is so committed to the defensive rush that it governed his selections, specifically Henry Slade’s recall at centre after he did not feature at last year’s World Cup.
England’s high-risk, high-reward defensive approach is further complicated by Slade’s fitness.
Slade leads the defensive midfield rush but lacks punch on attack and he is shorn of match fitness after only playing 55 minutes last weekend for Exeter after undergoing shoulder surgery in July.
England restricted the All Blacks to 40 points (four tries) in July through their unwavering commitment to defensive line speed – and they should have emerged with at least one victory after Marcus Smith’s goalkicking proved costly in Robertson’s first test at the helm in Dunedin.
Countering line speed has long been the All Blacks’ kryptonite but as their attack improves, England may find replicating their defensive success more challenging amid their coaching upheaval.
England must also juggle losing dynamic halfback Alex Mitchell and blindside/lock Ollie Chessum to injury but they welcome noted breakdown exponent Tom Curry back for his first home test in two years.
While England’s suffocating defence against the All Blacks’ attacking intent again shapes as a pivotal battleground, the third test between these old enemies this year could be defined by who has evolved more in the past four months.
Those who stand still are destined to be usurped.
All Blacks v England, Sunday 4.10amLive commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Live match blog at nzherald.co.nz
Liam Napier has been a sports journalist since 2010, and his work has taken him to World Cups in rugby, netball and cricket, boxing world title fights and Commonwealth Games.
