Caleb Clarke’s absence from the All Blacks for their tall order Twickenham test could spark a major backline reshuffle.
From the outset of this tour, England loomed as the greatest threat to the All Blacks’ Grand Slam hopes.
This week will prove that notion true.
After surging over the top of Ireland in the final quarter in Chicago and relying on Damian McKenzie’s late magic to escape a torrid tussle in Edinburgh, the All Blacks must significantly improve to stop England’s nine-match unbeaten run.
The good news is All Blacks captain Scott Barrett appears on track to return after missing the Jekyll and Hyde victory in Scotland while recovering from a dozen stitches to repair the nasty knee gash he suffered in the opening minutes against Ireland.
Barrett had his wound covered but moved reasonably freely as the All Blacks warmed up at Murrayfield. He is likely to be protected at training in London this week but appears likely to regain the captaincy and start in the second-row alongside Fabian Holland for England.
Barrett’s probable return would allow the All Blacks to inject much-needed fresh legs to their tight five and bolster their depleted locking stocks by pushing Josh Lord to the bench after his two impressive performances.
The backline, though, will undergo notable change, with Clarke ruled out due to concussion after copping a stray boot to the head in an attempted tackle early in the second half against Scotland.
Clarke’s absence shines a spotlight on the composition of the All Blacks back three – a problematic area set to be under siege from a barrage of high balls this week.
England altered their team that eventually quelled Fiji 38-18 at Twickenham last weekend by combining attacking-minded Northampton playmaker Fin Smith at first receiver with Marcus Smith at fullback.
For the All Blacks, though, England are near certain to revert to type by reinstating the experienced, largely conservative, George Ford at No 10.
After watching the All Blacks continue to battle under the high ball, Ford and halfback Alex Mitchell will pepper the backfield with hoists to the heavens.
In that context, losing Clarke, the All Blacks’ best winger under the high ball, is a significant blow.
In an attempt to plug Clarke’s absence, the All Blacks could shift Jordan to the right wing, Leroy Carter to the left edge, and promote McKenzie to start at fullback where he has consistently impressed off the bench this season.
That would, however, leave the All Blacks with an unbalanced, lightweight back three - and alter McKenzie’s game-changing supersub status from the bench.
With the Crusaders and All Blacks, head coach Scott Robertson has long favoured at least one power wing in his starting teams.
On that basis, the more likely solution is moving Leicester Fainga’anuku from centre, where he struggled defensively and with his handling against Scotland, to the left wing and combining the defensively sound Billy Proctor alongside Quinn Tupaea’s direct presence in the midfield, with Rieko Ioane coming on to the bench as cover.
After spending two years with French club Toulon in the midfield before rejoining the All Blacks, Fainga’anuku could be targeted by England’s penchant for high balls, too.
“England are promoting a brand where they want to move the ball and trust their skills but we’ve also seen they’ll probably go back to their DNA, their kicking and set piece pressure, when the game becomes tight,” All Blacks assistant coach Tamati Ellison said. “We have to prepare for both.”
Questions could be raised about Carter’s starting presence, too, after his brain snap foot trip that earned him the first of the All Blacks’ three yellow cards at Murrayfield.
But with Ruben Love, who the All Blacks have shown little faith in, and Sevu Reece the other options on the wing, that route appears unlikely.
Chiefs captain Luke Jacobson, unused by the All Blacks this year, is also unavailable after suffering a concussion in the All Blacks XV’s win against England A last weekend.
The patchy nature of victories against Ireland and Scotland evokes concerns for an English side primed for revenge after losing the last three battles with the All Blacks.
That stretch includes England’s 24-22 heartbreak at Twickenham last November when McKenzie slotted a sidelined conversion after a late Mark Tele’a try and Ford missed a potentially match-winning dropped goal.
While the All Blacks’ maul defence must improve after conceding one try to Scotland, which also resulted in Ardie Savea’s yellow card, Ellison took heart from their stoic goal line defence that twice held up the locals and included Cam Roigard’s try-saving tackle on Darcy Graham in the corner.
“Reflecting on the period just after half time and what the boys had to endure there... Scotland had momentum, the crowd, the occasion and everything going for them. We’re proud of the efforts there,” Ellison said. “The leaders on the field were composed around the solutions and what we needed to do in the heat of the battle.”
With their Grand Slam quest set to be defined by this contest, the reshuffled All Blacks must summon similar resilience and vastly more accuracy if they are to halt England at their intimidating home.
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.