Scott Robertson faces pressure after five defeats in 19 tests as All Blacks coach.
Robertson’s vision of ultrafast rugby is hindered by ineffective attack patterns and player selection.
The continued selection of Rieko Ioane and Sevu Reece on the wings is under scrutiny.
It was Ernest Hemingway in his debut novel The Sun Also Rises who said that there are two ways to go bankrupt – gradually, then suddenly.
This gradually-then-suddenly process might feel familiar to All Blacks coach Scott Robertson as he contemplates how he’s found himself in such apickle five tests into the 2025 season.
Appointed in 2023 with a mandate to make the All Blacks soar, the Robertson era hasn’t managed to get off the runway yet, and 19 tests into his tenure, there have been five defeats.
This places Robertson somewhere close to the bottom of the list in comparison with his peers. Steve Hansen’s fifth defeat as All Blacks coach came after 73 tests. Graham Henry’s fifth defeat was suffered in his 48th game at the helm and Ian Foster, after 19 tests in charge had won 15, drawn one and lost three – a more favourable record than Robertson has managed in his 19 tests.
So too is there a major disconnect between the stylistic narrative Robertson promotes and the ability of his players to deliver it.
All Blacks coach Scott Robertson reflects on defeat to Argentina at the weekend. Photo / Photosport
He says his vision is to play an ultrafast, high-skilled brand of rugby, but there has been virtually no evidence that his players either have the skill-sets, nor that the coaching group has the right blueprint to pull this off.
Where this disconnect between vision and ability has looked to be at its widest, has been the continued selection of both Rieko Ioane and Sevu Reece on the wings, and what may be dawning on Robertson now is that he has made a mistake by investing so much time in both.
Perhaps he was blinded by his ambition to enthral the masses, or was guilty of a major tactical misread, but the continued selection of both is a failure to respect the core role of the modern wing and understand the realities of the international game.
It may crush the soul of the rugby romantic, but it has been the undeniable case that for the past two decades being able to catch high balls has been the top priority skill for wings.
This idea that it’s all about cantering in wide open spaces is rarely true. Robertson’s mistake has been to believe that he could set the All Blacks up to succeed by picking two wings neither of whom are recognised as proficient in the art of winning the ball in the air.
All Blacks coach Scott Robertson has trusted winger Sevu Reece. Photo / Photosport
As a standalone project, the conversion of Ioane from centre back to wing has been a valid and worthy investment.
Ioane, in his prime, brought enough raw power, intuition, speed and finishing ability to offset what he lacked as a high-ball catcher and backfield defender.
This project to build Ioane 2.0 has been slow going though.
He’s not looked at home on the wing, but Robertson has subscribed to the theory that it will be a gradual process of the 28-year-old reacquainting himself with his old position, and week-by-week his instincts will return.
And probably because there has been an acceptance that Ioane is a work in progress, Robertson has trusted Reece to be his rock on the other wing – a high-functioning, experienced influence both on attack and defence – rather than risk trying to bed in an unknown quantity such as Emoni Narawa or Leroy Carter.
Again, maybe the theory makes sense, but the faith in Reece has always seemed misplaced – an overly generous assessment of his all-round ability and temperament. If the Ioane-Reece combination was gradually eroding the all-round ability of the All Blacks this year, in Buenos Aires the whole business suddenly looked like a bad idea.
Ioane was, quite literally, lost at times while over on the other flank, Reece was just as vulnerable to Argentina’ kicking strategy and the danger of having two wings out of their depth in that one regard, meant that Will Jordan was covering acres of the backfield and inevitably came up short in his own aerial portfolio.
Rieko Ioane has returned to the wing for the All Blacks this season. Photo / Photosport
With a run of five games now coming up – two tests against the world champion Springboks, two against the vastly improved Wallabies and one against the perennially excellent Ireland – the big concern is that Robertson is going to have to make a massive selection call to drop either one or both of his preferred wings, without knowing for sure whether he’s replacing them with a lower-risk alternative.
South Africa will be the veritable sharks sniffing blood if Ioane and Reece are wheeled out again and no side is better equipped to torment an opponent with their kicking game.
Perhaps picking them both again would be the ultimate show of confidence – a brilliant act of defiance to demonstrate the commitment to this fast-attacking game – but based on what happened in Argentina, it feels it would be a giant act of folly.
But Robertson’s dilemma has been intensified by his over commitment to the two veterans, because neither Narawa nor Carter (Caleb Clarke is on the long-term injury list and Leicester Fainga’anuku is off-limits until the end-of-year tour) have been given any significant opportunity to date.
Narawa has at least played a test under Robertson – his last appearance was in Wellington this year – and in his three caps he’s shown himself to be a reasonably good operator under the high ball.
Another possibility would be to shift Jordan to the right wing, persevere with Ioane and bring in Ruben Love at fullback.
But Narawa has never played a test of this magnitude, and history has shown that a price is usually paid somewhere along the way for shifting superstar fullbacks into other positions.
