THREE KEY POINTS
– Scott Robertson names his first All Blacks squad, and its captain, on Monday
– Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett stand out as the two leading contenders to replace Sam Cane
– It’s still to be seen how much Robertson will lean on his Crusaders connections as All Blacks head coach
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He’s won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.
OPINION
The All Blacks will be unveiled in Christchurch on Monday, a squad picked by a head coach synonymous with the Garden City and in the home of the club which built a Super Rugby empire.
And 16 months ago, when Scott Robertson was at the helm of an almost unbeatable Crusaders team that were on track to win their seventh successive title, who didn’t imagine when he took over from Ian Foster, that Christchurch – in so many ways – would be the spiritual home and heart of his All Blacks?
He’d built a strategic blueprint with the Crusaders that looked ready to come off the peg and be dropped into the All Blacks, such was its robust nature and reliance on the test rugby imperatives of a strong set piece and powerful collision work.
Most of Robertson’s coaching team are stamped red and black, with Jason Ryan, Scott Hansen and Leon MacDonald all having spent time at the club working with Robertson.
And there was a natural assumption that the squad would have a heavy Crusaders playing presence, and whatever tactical innovations and cultural tweaks Robertson intended to bring to the All Blacks, there would be an undeniably strong Canterbury flavour.
But the picture has changed dramatically since Robertson was appointed All Blacks coach last April, and Super Rugby Pacific 2024 has shown that the energy and innovation has migrated from the South Island to the North.
The power bases are Auckland, Hamilton and Wellington and the players who look most capable and best equipped to revamp the All Blacks are young, classic Gen Z, mostly Polynesian, urbanites who have come of age in 2024 in how they play and how they lead.
New Zealand has a new breed of athlete, a new cohort of dynamic, unflinching players, typified by Blues captain Patrick Tuipulotu, Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Hoskins Sotutu, who have been relentless, tough, powerful and disciplined throughout the Super competition.
These three, and Dalton Papali’i, enjoyed career-best seasons – playing a brand of rugby that will work every bit as effectively with the All Blacks as it did with the Blues.
There have been plenty of others to have emerged this year, offering much the same desire to stay in the fight, use their explosive power to devastating effect and demonstrate their understanding that rugby is conflict first, sport second.
Tupou Vai’i at the Chiefs looks ready to be a test lock now; Luke Jacobson was fearless, and in Wellington, Xavier Numia, Peter Lakai and Brayden Iose gave the Hurricanes what they needed at the set piece and in all the contact areas, as well as genuine ball-carrying X-factor.
This revolution wasn’t confined to the forwards, either. Caleb Clarke and Mark Telea showed how their power could be used in a different way.
Billy Proctor was big hits and classy touches and while Rieko Ioane didn’t score a try, he removed any doubt about his physicality and durability.
But these players are not defined by just their explosive power. They demonstrated an astute tactical appreciation and Tuipulotu, in particular, oozed a calm authority that gave the Blues direction and resilience.
And looking at this new breed of athlete set to dominate the All Blacks in 2024, the right choice for captain is Ardie Savea. Savea is the guiding light and inspiration for young players across New Zealand, particularly those from a Pasifika background who relate to his upbringing.
They are drawn to his natural charisma, his modern take on what rugby players can be off the field and the imagination and physicality with which he plays.
Savea also fits the profile New Zealand Rugby is trying to build among its playing base in its quest to build its commercial reach in foreign markets.
He’s articulate, open, honest, all over social media, internationally recognised and universally admired for his ability to not only play with wow factor, but to honour the traditions of the game without conforming to preconceived notions of what an All Black should say, wear and do to fit the brief.
And, like his good friend, Springboks captain Siya Kolisi, who has become the face of a story of hope in South Africa, Savea could be a unifying force in a New Zealand that doesn’t have the same abject poverty or appalling crime rates but is increasingly polarised and divided, and seemingly hellbent on turning the clock back 100 years on race relations.
He could be the talismanic figurehead of an All Blacks team which shows that rugby can cross social divides, change attitudes and be an agent to heal.
Savea is an icon, a trailblazer, a man who has forged the way for the next generation of Pasifika New Zealanders to be the best versions of themselves, and having previously captained the All Blacks – most notably for 50 minutes in the World Cup final – he has a stunning set of credentials to lead this Gen Z brigade back to the top of the international game.
But Robertson has said that he made his mind up about who he wanted as captain some months ago – long before this North Island power shift and the demise of the Crusaders.
And perhaps because of that, and maybe too because the scale of personnel change inside the All Blacks has been so extensive, Robertson may want a captain with whom he’s familiar and already has a working relationship.
Savea may embody and perfectly represent the emerging playing group, but as Robertson tries to come to grips with his new role and deal with all the pressures and challenges that come with it, the confidence he has in Scott Barrett, a man he knows inside out and trusts implicitly, may have won the Crusaders captain the All Blacks job.
Coach and captain form a crucial axis and perhaps Robertson sees having strength and certainty in this relationship as the most important quality he wants in his chosen leader.
There has to be a connection, an understanding between coach and captain deep enough for their relationship to work under duress – they have to have an alignment in how they want the All Blacks to play and how they want them to interact, and Robertson and Barrett have their Crusaders link – their shared history – to be sure they are compatible.
Barrett is a world-class lock, guaranteed starter and equally capable of leading by the way he plays – and he’ll be inspirational in his own way.
He does not tick as many boxes as Savea and certainly hasn’t shown himself to be charismatic in media settings to date, but if he is named captain, it will be because he ticks one specific box that the world’s best player doesn’t.
The 31-year-old will take up a second sabbatical in his NZ Rugby contract.