THREE KEY FACTS
- Scott Robertson‘s first season with the All Blacks ended with a 71% win ratio, raising concerns.
- Robertson faces pressure to improve in 2025, needing to win eight of the first nine tests.
- Key challenges include a three-test series against France and maintaining dominance over Ireland and Scotland.
Typically, the big worry for All Blacks coaches in their sophomore year is making sure they don’t contract a case of the dreaded second-season syndrome – where they can’t evolve the team and build on a promising start.
For Scott Robertson, that’s not a legitimate fear, as he suffered second-season syndrome in his first season in charge of the All Blacks. He was seemingly unable to grow the team he inherited from predecessor Ian Foster or fix on a definitive style of rugby to mark the beginning of a new era – if not in results, then at least in the nature of the performances.
The All Blacks finished 2024 with 10 wins from 14 tests – a comparatively underwhelming and unimpressive return, but one that was accepted with a generosity of spirit by a media and public that seemed willing to buy into the “Rome wasn’t built in a day” theme that was pushed in light of the scale of personnel changes – coaching, management and players – made following the 2023 World Cup.
But the ability of the typical All Blacks fan to accommodate a 71% win ratio and patchy performances can only last so long – and Robertson has most likely used up all the goodwill credits he’s ever going to be given.
This year there will be limited tolerance – no extension granted to the overdraft to continue the “rebuild” – and the mood will be decidedly more hostile should Robertson’s All Blacks lose another four tests in 2025.
The unknown is just where exactly expectation sits internally and what sort of success Robertson needs to produce in 2025 to satisfy his employer that he’s still the right man to coach the All Blacks.
Gauged against his professional-era predecessors, he sits somewhere close to the bottom of the pack.
John Hart’s All Blacks played 22 tests in his first two years at the helm and won 20, lost one and drew one for a 95% success ratio.
John Mitchell, who was appointed midway through the 2001 season, making comparisons a little different, steered the team to 21 wins in 25 tests across two seasons (and an end-of-year tour) for an 84% record.
Sir Graham Henry’s All Blacks played 23 tests in his first two years and won 20 (87%); Sir Steve Hansen’s All Blacks played 28, won 26, lost one and drew one (96%).
Where the numerical comparisons with Robertson start to get closer are in the records of Sir Wayne Smith and Ian Foster.
Smith’s All Blacks played 17 tests between June 2000 and August 2001 and won 12 (70%) – a record that left the head coach telling his employer he was no longer sure he was the right man for the job. His employer agreed and Smith effectively fired himself.
Foster’s All Blacks played 21 tests in his first two years – a period heavily affected by Covid-19 restrictions that meant 14 games were played away from home – and won 15, drawing one (76%).
When the All Blacks lost three of their first four tests in his third year – which left Foster on a 68% success ratio – he came perilously close to being fired.
History, therefore, suggests that New Zealand Rugby’s (NZR) executive and governance get twitchy when a coach, after two years in the job, is struggling to get the win ratio above 70%.
The unwritten rule seems to be that if a coach can produce a win record that is in line with the All Blacks’ all-time ratio of 76%, then they will be tolerated, but still under pressure to boost it to at least 80%.
To put Robertson’s numeric mandate into perspective, the All Blacks will need to win eight of their first nine tests – the series against France and the Rugby Championship – to lift his success ratio above the baseline 76%.
Speaking to the Herald earlier this year, NZR chief executive Mark Robinson was asked to give his assessment on Robertson’s success in 2024 and detail his expectations for the team in 2025.
“We desperately want to win every game we play and we want to be consistently highly successful,” Robinson said.
“We want to be winning more than that [70%]. We want to win every game we play – and we know that is challenging.
“People know we want to win the World Cup with the Black Ferns, retain the Bledisloe and win the Rugby Championship – and they are clear expectations.”
And this is the greatest source of pressure Robertson faces in 2025: he’s operating with no margin for error – and with the knowledge of what has happened to his predecessors who didn’t deliver in line with the legacy.
The red-flag matches
France July 12, Wellington
France are the All Blacks’ first opponents – they will play a three-test series in July – and there are two specific dangers they pose.
The first is their head coach Fabien Galthie cleverly twisted the narrative last year to put all the pressure on the All Blacks by stating he would be leaving the bulk of his top players at home.
Whether that pans out to be true or not, the story is now embedded in the nation’s consciousness that the French are bringing a weakened squad and expectations have formed that this should be a 3-0 romp for the All Blacks.
But the reality is a little different. The French have arguably the greatest depth of any major union and whatever squad they bring will have the potential to win the series, or at least be a good bet to win one test.
And, specifically, the red-flag game is the second test in Wellington. The perception exists that the All Blacks are at their most vulnerable in the opening game of any season, but the statistics show they haven’t lost in their first outing since 2009 (France beat them in Dunedin).
It has been the second game in which the All Blacks have more regularly struggled – losing to the British and Irish Lions in 2017 and Ireland in 2022. Both those defeats were in Wellington – which is another significant factor.
The All Blacks’ record in Wellington is comparatively shocking.
The story of their past seven tests there reads: win (Australia), loss (Argentina), loss (Ireland), draw (Australia), draw (South Africa), loss (South Africa), win (France).
As Ardie Savea acknowledged last year before leading the team to defeat in the capital against the Pumas: “That’s a cold reality that we don’t perform well in Wellington.
“For us, we don’t talk about that, we talk about each day that we try and nail in our preparation and hopefully get the win on Saturday.”
Ireland, November 2, Chicago
The All Blacks haven’t beaten Ireland three times in succession since 2013. From having never lost to them, the All Blacks were defeated at Soldier Field in Chicago 2016 and since then, Ireland have gone on to win four more times, with neither nation being able to mount more than two consecutive victories in that period.
The All Blacks currently sit on two consecutive wins against Ireland so it would be a huge breakthrough to win in Chicago to reassert an element of dominance over them that they haven’t had since 2016.
Robertson needs this victory to start changing the narrative about the nature of the rivalry with Ireland and make it seem more one-sided than it currently is.
But this is a game that comes with all sorts of other pressures for the All Blacks. They are in the USA to showcase the brand – to convince US fans and potential sponsors that the All Blacks are rugby’s greatest asset and worthy of investment.
This will be a big week in camp for the All Blacks – sponsors wanting a pound of flesh from them, media demands being higher than usual and a relatively alien environment for most of the squad.
The last time the All Blacks were in Chicago the players, many of whom follow US sports, were distracted by the opportunities to attend live NBA and NFL events in the city.
And, as they discovered in 2016, the whole experience backfires somewhat when they don’t win – especially when the stadium is predominantly full of Irish fans.
Scotland, November 9, Edinburgh
This game against Scotland won’t jump out as a red flag to many fans, given the history between these two and the continued gap in their respective rankings.
But the danger posed by this match is that it is sandwiched between the Irish test in Chicago and a test against England at Twickenham.
It’s a game in which Robertson will likely want to use fringe contenders to keep his top troops fresh. The All Blacks have done this in their past three visits to Murrayfield in 2014, 2017 and 2022 – and all three games have been in the balance until the final 10 minutes.
Scotland are not heavyweights but they have a high-quality backline and the ability to conjure tries on limited possession and if Robertson gets too cute with his selections – leaving too many big names out of the match-day 23 – he could pay a hefty price.
The significance of winning/losing at Eden Park
It’s now 31 years and 50 tests since the All Blacks lost at Eden Park – arguably the most stunning statistic in modern rugby.
It’s a record that has been maintained through seven head coaches – including Robertson (so far). During this run, the All Blacks have won a World Cup final, secured the Bledisloe Cup on countless occasions and beaten every major nation at least once.
But this year, the All Blacks will face the Springboks at Eden Park and this will be the first time since 2004 – when they took on England – that the All Blacks have played the reigning world champions at Eden Park.
The enormity of this game will be undeniable as the All Blacks have lost their past four tests against the Boks and are yet to post a victory against them under Robertson.
No coach wants to be responsible for the run ending because when it does, it will carry major significance, supporting a wider narrative about the end of an era.
Robertson faces a double pressure because another loss to the Africans would set up a second narrative about which nation is the world’s smartest, most innovative and most dominant in the world game.
Speaking on the Rugby Pod podcast, former Wales first five-eighths Dan Biggar, said: “They [South Africa] could do it, they could end it. It’s got to end at some point, doesn’t it?
“If there’s a team that’s going to break it, you would say that’s the team.”
Alternatively, a victory at Eden Park for the All Blacks will likely put them in pole position to win the Rugby Championship and if they have already secured a series win against France, Robertson will be writing a different story about growth and transformation.
The All Blacks season won’t be deemed a success simply by beating the Boks at Eden Park, but that game will have a disproportionate impact in determining how 2025 is viewed.
Double down with Barrett or twist on Ardie Savea?
Robertson, not unsurprisingly given his existing ties, chose Scott Barrett as his captain last year.
The two had built a relationship built on mutual respect through their time at the Crusaders and Robertson, having brought in a new coaching team and mostly new management group, wanted a captain he knew in an environment where there were a lot of people, including the head coach, finding their way.
Barrett was a safe choice, but he never seemed overly comfortable in the role, didn’t grow into it and never found the same commanding form that had defined his 2023 season and had everyone saying he was one of the best locks in the world game.
The haka debacle in the last game of the season, in which TJ Perenara made unsanctioned political comments, further illustrated the difficulties of captaining the All Blacks in the modern age and the communication and leadership skills required to effectively do the job.
And this is where the conundrum with Barrett lies. He’s not a natural communicator or charismatic leader and he doesn’t appear to love the breadth of duties the role asks of him.
His captaincy is built around his standing as a world-class player and his ability to inspire through his actions.
But it seems that the burden of the role – having to deal with all the off-field media, commercial and sponsorship obligations and being so centrally involved in all the leadership meetings – weighs heavily on Barrett and is a barrier to him being at his best on the field.
Ardie Savea, on the other hand, who has captained the All Blacks in almost as many tests as Barrett, is charismatic, comfortable in the public eye, relaxed with the media and capable of handling all the demands of the role and still playing at his best.
Savea has shown his natural leadership ability this year in the way he has transformed Moana Pasifika both with his brilliance on the field and his professionalism off it.
There’s an argument to say that if Robertson switched the captaincy to Savea, he’d gain a more rounded leader who was more comfortable in the role and better equipped to be the North Star the team needs. It would also free Barrett from a job that may be holding him back, rejuvenating him to his best form and enabling him to play a more influential role as a trusted lieutenant.
But to switch would be an admission he got it wrong last year and Razor might fear that would undermine confidence in him.
In search of a destroyer
Robertson, as a former loose forward who regularly switched between openside and No 8, suggested last year that he’s of the view that modern rugby is played in such a way that the roles of all three loose forwards contain so many generic and shared elements that specialisms are almost obsolete.
He was picking his loose trio for the balance they gave the team, rather than worrying too much about which number jersey everyone wore.
By the end of the year, he had clarity that his best trio was Wallace Sititi at six, Sam Cane at seven and Ardie Savea at No 8.
With Cane no longer available, he needs to find another starting loose forward – and in theory, he’s looking for a replacement openside.
But Savea is a natural seven, and Sititi’s preferred role is No 8 and so what Robertson really needs to find is someone who is comfortable wearing No 6 and for that someone to be a different type of athlete and body shape.
The All Blacks need a bruising, towering presence in their loose trio – someone with the height to pressure opposition lineouts.
It’s not really whether they are a natural No 6 – it’s more whether they can add a different dimension to Savea and Sititi, both of whom are relatively short by international standards. They also need to challenge defences with a different style of ball-carrying, given their longer levers.
This is essentially the only missing piece in the All Blacks selection jigsaw. They have an abundance of quality front-rowers; a growing pool of talented locks; a playmaking combination of Cam Roigard and Beauden Barrett; an established midfield combination in Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane and plenty of options to look at to replace Mark Tele’a in the back three, alongside Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke.
The All Blacks’ one non-negotiable selection task in 2025 is to find that player to give their loose trio the balance it needs at set piece and in the collision area.
And, specifically, they need to find that player so when they meet the Springboks, they have in their midst the requisite breakdown presence, defensive crunch and ball-carrying punch to match South Africa’s Pieter-Steph de Toit.
Building brand Razor and his band of All Blacks
When Robertson was coaching the Crusaders between 2017 and 2023, there was such a defined and natural way that the perennial Super Rugby champions went about their business.
They had 20-plus years of culture ingrained in their DNA and they were methodical – almost surgical – in the art of dissecting opponents.
Robertson added his flavour to the mix with his quirky press conferences, themed campaigns and famous breakdance routines.
Most of the country, even those with no real love of the Crusaders, enjoyed the schtick and the ease with which Robertson was both a breath of fresh air and a conformist in all the right ways.
Coming into the All Blacks, he was always going to have to have to amend his act to reflect the team’s established way of doing things and its legacy, and to respect the greater pressures of test rugby.
There was, though, significant hope that he would still impose some sense of himself within the environment – build a new, dynamic game plan with a mix of established and emerging players and add a little vibrancy to the front-of-house exchanges.
The public were hanging out for a new look and feel for the All Blacks and for brand Razor to flourish at the heart of it.
But one year into his tenure, there is no defined sense of what sort of rugby he wants his team to play or who he wants to be driving it and instead of the charismatic, quirky character that fronted for the Crusaders, Robertson has been a little stiff and unsure with the media.
Building a clear identity and an obvious brand of rugby helps a coach go a long way towards winning the hearts and minds of the New Zealand rugby public, even if there are a few defeats.
And just as importantly, a coach can bank goodwill by establishing a personal brand, as evidenced by Hansen, who went from being at war with the media in 2009 to having them eating out of his hand between 2012 and 2019.
He was the master at the artful one-liner, famously telling reporters after he was asked whether he would be fired if his record contained as many defeats as that of then Wallabies coach Robbie Deans: “Why don’t you give me a loaded gun? Why don’t you just pull the trigger yourself? We all know the answer to that so I’m not even going to go there,” he said.
At the World Cup in 2015, he said ahead of the quarter-final clash with France: “There’s been a great relationship between the two countries for a long, long time. Apart from the Rainbow Warrior, we’ve probably been on the same page for most of the time. From a rugby point of view, we’ve got similar athletes ... their game is built around flair in the backs and real physicality up front.”
As much as the New Zealand public want victories, they want to believe in the brand of rugby the All Blacks are playing and build a connection with the coach and the players.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.