League: Fitness and form vital in NRL play-offs

Fully fit players, in form and performing with confidence are the key to winning Australasian rugby league's big prize.

The winners have damaging big forwards, smart hookers and halves and a safe fullback.

There are two teams this year who have all those key components and there is little doubt they will meet in the final game of the 2004 NRL season at Stadium Australia on October 3.

A survey of coaches, current and former players quickly elicits two names, the Roosters and Bulldogs.

"They are the form teams, they have momentum and both teams are very healthy - that is absolutely vital going into the playoffs," said Newcastle coach Michael Hagan who guided the Knights to the title in 2001.

There are all manner of adages attached to the annual prediction of the result: You have to lose one to win one, you can't win from outside the top-four, and so on.

All have been disproved at some point. 2003 winners Penrith were last in 2001. Parramatta were beaten grand finalists that year but haven't come close since.

You have to go back to 1995 to find the last winner who came from outside the top-four, the Bulldogs who were 6th.

It's most unlikely the winner will come from outside the top-four this year. The sides from five to eight are ravaged by injuries.

Suspensions and injuries have played a big part in the poor performance of some teams this season: Fallen by the wayside after losing top players and using too many others to find stability and combination were the Eels (36 starters,) the Warriors (35), the Knights (34), the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Wests (32) and Manly (31).

The Bulldogs used 27 players in the 24 roundplay games, while the Roosters used 29.

So being able to maintain a stable side plays a part in success and the work of medics is crucial.

So is discipline, both in terms of avoiding the judiciary and also in limiting the number of penalties given. The Warriors were 2004's most-penalised side, the Roosters the least-penalised.

History suggests the winner will require one champion player, a legendary stand-out such as Brad Fittler. And it suggests that he will require back-up from a solid group of above-average players such as Craig Wing, Adrian Morley, Jason Cayless, Craig Fitzgibbon, Luke Ricketson, Brett Finch and Anthony Minichiello.

While the Dogs' Braith Anasta has been improving, his halves partner Brent Sherwin is struggling with a hip injury and may miss the early playoff games. But certainly they have the forward power with Steve Price and Mark O'Meley, and the power out back from Willie Tonga and Matt Utai to put them in with a serious chance.

It's just that they don't look as good, man-for-man, as do the Roosters.

The Dragons and Panthers may rate the third best chance, because of injury to the third-placed Broncos. Brisbane's guiding light, Darren Lockyer, hasn't played for weeks and they are struggling at halfback and hooker. A raft of players enter the finals series carrying niggles or coming back after a break. And they have dropped games in the lead-up.

The Panthers rely heavily on the impact of injured Kiwis Joe Galuvao and Tony Puletua in the middle of their sets of six. Though they certainly qualify in terms of talent with the likes of Craig Gower and Preston Campbell in the halves, plus Rhys Wesser at fullback, they were beaten not so long ago by both the Roosters (44-12) and the Dogs (46-20).

St George Illawarra used the most players of any club (37) this season but have come through a horrific injury toll to bring key components back into the game at the right end of the season.

Still in that frame are Australia prop Luke Bailey, on the bench this week after a pectoral injury, and centre Mark Gasnier, expected back after a collarbone break.

They have the game-breaker in Trent Barrett plus back-up from a host of State of Origin players. But do they have the mental toughness?

Previous finals experience is a big plus. On that score the Roosters are way out in front, with 149 playoff series appearances between them.

The Broncos, who have featured in the playoffs more consistently than any other side in recent years, are next best on 102. The Bulldogs have only 78 after being denied entry to the 2002 series following their salary cap breaches.

Penrith have 73, the Dragons 57, the Cowboys only 29.

Of the Cowboys who have played finals, Matt Sing (15) and Campion (14) plus Travis Norton (9) and Paul Rauhihi (2) have missed recent roundplay matches through injury.

They and the eighth-placed Canberra Raiders, who lose key players Simon Woolford to suspension and Ruben Wiki to injury, face an early exit this weekend. Their qualifying games appear as a Mission Impossible, both teams much better at home than they are away.

Cronulla great Steve Rogers and Parramatta's chief executive were among those backing a Roosters-Bulldogs final.

"Those teams have set the benchmark all year," Rogers said. "They have had the best run with injury and suspension all year and if they continue that way I expect them to be there at the end."

Fitzgerald said "absolutely everything" has to go right in order for a club to win the title.

The captains of seven of the playoff teams, plus Luke Ricketson standing in for Fittler, all picked their own side to make the grand final. Ricketson (Roosters), Barrett (Dragons) and Norton (Cowboys) expect to meet the Bulldogs on October 3. The Bulldogs' Steve Price, Penrith's Gower and Canberra's Woolford expect to play the Roosters.

Stephen Kearney and Gorden Tallis of the Storm and Broncos respectively said they could not separate the Dogs and Roosters and expected either to make it against their team. The Warriors' Monty Betham tipped a Bulldogs/Roosters grand final and is hoping the Dogs win for the sake of incoming team-mate Price.

In contrast

Finals appearances:

Roosters 149

Bulldogs 78


Players used this season:

Roosters 29

Bulldogs 27


NRL points table and fixtures