Rugby League: NRL Preview - Round 25

Compiled by PETER JESSUP

Melbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders

Olympic Park; Friday, June 21, 9.30 pm.

Storm: Brad Watts, Matt Geyer, Aaron Moule, Matt Geyer, Marcus Bai, Tasesa Lavea, Brett Kimmorley, Robbie Kearns (c), Richard Swain, Rodney Howe, Stephen Kearney, Matt Rua, Scott Hill; interchange Danny Williams, Paul Marquet, Russell Bawden, Ben Roarty.

Raiders: Ken Nagas, Mark McLinden, Jamaal Lolesi, Luke Williamson, Ken Nagas, Lesley Vainikolo, Laurie Daley (c), Andrew McFadden, Ruben Wiki, Simon Woolford, Luke Davico, Alan Tongue, David Furner, Jason Crocker; interchange Brett Finch, Todd Payten, Adam Peters, Brandon Costin.

Referee: Tim Mander

* Rodney Howe escaped suspension after being sent off for the late charge he put on Eagles skipper Geoff Toovey, video reviewer Jim Hall deeming that penalty enough. 1999s top points-scorer Matt Geyer re-signed this week for two seasons. Tony Martin comes back to the centres and Geyer goes to his favoured wing spot. Tasesa Lavea missed last week but is also cleared to play. The Raiders are without elusive fullback Brett Mullins, hernia, Nagas going back and McLinden to wing with newboy Jamaal Lolesi to the midfield, and bench player Justin Morgan is gone, leg. All that, the fact the Raiders have never come away from Olympic Park with a win after three starts there, the home crowd and the Storm's need to finish in the top four to secure a second life and home ground advantage in the playoffs means they're odds-on favourites.

Brisbane Broncos v Auckland Warriors

ANZ Stadium; Saturday, July 22, 4.30 pm.

Broncos: Darren Lockyer, Lote Tuqiri, Tonie Carroll, Michael De Vere, Wendell Sailor, Ben Ikin, Kevin Walters (c), Harvey Howard, Luke Priddis, Dane Carlaw, Gorden Tallis, Brad Thorn, Kevin Campion; interchange Shane Walker, Ashley Harrison, Michael Hancock, Bradley Meyers.

Warriors: Clinton Toopi, Odell Manuel, David Myles, Nigel Vagana, Henry Faafili, John Simon (c), Stacey Jones, Joe Vagana, Robert Mears, Terry Hermansson, Logan Swann, Monty Betham, Scott Coxon; interchange Cliff Beverley, Henry Perenara, Ali Lauiti'iti, Matt Spence.

Referee: Sean Hampstead

* This is the time of the year when loss of one key player can finish finals chances and Broncos prop Shane Webcke is one such, gone for the season and doubtful for the World Cup after breaking his arm last weekend. Webcke's partner at the front Petero Civoniceva is a few games back after a similar injury but he doesn't have the big-match experience. So much will fall to former Great Britain and Wests frontrower Harvey Howard, who has been with feeder club Toowoomba for much of the season, and youngsters Dane Carlaw and Brad Meyers. The Warriors should have the wood on that lot given the form Joe Vagana and Terry Hermansson have been in, Matt Spence working hard at the front too. They're worth a punt given the 22 and a half points start given by Centrebet in Aussie but make it a small one.

Penrith Panthers v Northern Eagles

Penrith Stadium; Saturday, July 22, 9.30 pm.

Panthers: Peter Jorgensen, Robbie Beckett, Ryan Girdler, Shane Elford, Chris Hicks, Steve Carter (c), Matthew Rodwell, Craig Greenhill, Craig Gower, Carl MacNamara, Tony Puletua, Matt Adamson, John Cross; interchange Mark Geyer, Jody Gall, Brad Drew, Scott Sattler.

Eagles: Andrew King, Andrew Frew, Albert Torrens, Michael Buettner, Joel Penny, Brandon Reeves, Matt Orford, Mark O'Meley, Geoff Toovey (c), Paul Stringer, Adam Muir, Steve Menzies, Owen Cunningham: interchange Steve Trindall, Josh Stuart, Dragan Durdevic, Jamie Goddard.

Referee: Moghseen Jadwat

* The Eagles have elevated teen prop O'Meley to the starting 13, Trindall sent to the bench. Steve Menzies is off contract and is talking to the Eels and Roosters. The Eagles remain in the hunt for outside backs including Auckland's Odell Manuel. The Panthers have Gower back at rake, his dummy-half speed and vision sorely missed last week. Mark Geyer is back to the bench and will stiffen the resolve for the 80 minutes given his desire to go out a winner. It was lack of concentration and work for 80m that coach Royce Simmons blamed for the blowout to the Roosters last week. "We've got a lot of players who've never done a day's work. If you threw them out bricklaying at six and they came home at four and went to training they'd have a heart attack . . . that's why we're getting the inconsistent football."

North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney City Roosters

Dairy Farmers Stadium; Saturday, July 22, 9.30 pm.

Cowboys: Graham Appo, Damien Smith, Julian O'Neill (c), Paul Bowman, Nap Kuracibi, Scott Prince, Nathan Fien, Robert Relf, Paul Dezolt, Mark Shipway, Kyle Warren, Glenn Morrison, Peter Jones; interchange Jeremy Schloss, Shaun Valentine, Daniel Strickland, Bruce Mamando.

Roosters: Luke Phillips, Robert Miles, Ryan Cross, Shannon Hegarty, Anthony Minichiello, Brad Fittler (c), Adrian Lam, Ian Rubin, Simon Bonetti, Scott Logan, Bryan Fletcher, Craig Fitzgibbon, Dean Widders; interchange David Solomona, Craig Wing, Dallas Hood, Luke Ricketson.

Referee: Mark Oaten.

* The Roosters look set to blow the Cowboys off the park, thereby relieving some pressure on Auckland who need to keep the gap they have over North Queensland in order to avoid the wooden spoon. The Roosters were dynamic against Penrith at Penrith last weekend, this being the time of year when the contenders sort themselves out from the pretenders. Ricketson comes back to add to the ball-playing ability off the ruck. . The Cowboys are struggling to field frontrowers and with a makeshift pack will struggle to gain the ground they need to make a game of it. A loss will seal their place at the bottom of the table and probably seal Tim Sheens fate, his contract apparently including a walk-away clause in favour of the club should the team finish last. Kiwi captain Richie Barnett confirmed that his facial injury will prevent him playing in the NRL before departure for England.

Sydney Sharks v Parramatta Eels

Cronulla Stadium; Sunday, July 23, 4.30 pm.

Sharks: David Peachey (c), Mat Rogers, Andrew Ettingshausen, Russell Richardson, Colin Best, Adam Dykes, Mitch Healey, Jason Stevens, Shannon Donato, Martin Lang, Sean Ryan, Nathan Long, Nick Graham; interchange Chris Beattie, Andrew Pierce, Paul Mellor, Jason Ferris.

Eels: Brett Hodgson, Pat Richards, Jamie Lyon, David Vaealiki, Jason Moodie, Jason Smith, David Penna, Nathan Cayless (c), Daniel Irvine, David Westley, Nathan Hindmarsh, Ian Hindmarsh, Daniel Wagon; interchange Stuart Kelly, Dallas Westen, Jim Dymock, Chad Robinson.

Referee: Paul Simpkins

* Sharks skipper Ettinghausen remains a doubtful starter, ET rating himself a 70 per cent chance of playing but the lower back strain he suffered against Auckland still bothering him. This is to be a showcase for Ettingshausen and Mitch Healey, who is off contract and at age 30 has not been offered another one, so it would be a shame if one of the stars was forced to watch from the sideline. Healey had a timely return, coming in for Blaine Stanley who is out for the season. Fullback Peachey keeps the captaincy. The Eels have test prop Vella back after an ankle injury but hooker Daniel Irvine is gone for the season, ankle ligaments. They're coming right at the right end of the season, playing with increasing confidence each week. The home team will be the more desperate here given their eighth place on the table and the Eels' fourth but, ET-less, they're no hope.

Wests Tigers v Newcastle Knights

Campbelltown Stadium; Sunday, July 23, 4.30 pm.

Tigers: Matt Seers, Joel Caine, Kevin McGuinness, Terry Hill, John Hopoate, Michael Gillett, Craig Field, Jason Lowrie, John Skandalis, Darren Senter (c), Shane Walker, Mark Mescie, Luke O'Donnell, Tyran Smith; interchange Ciriaco Mescia, Ben Galea, Steve Crouch, Richard Villasanti.

Knights: Adam MacDougall, Timana Tahu, Matthew Gidley, Mark Hughes, Lenny Beckett, Matthew Johns, Andrew Johns, Tony Butterfield (c), Danny Buderus, David Fairleigh, Sean Rudder, Steve Simpson, Bill Peden; interchange Peter Shiels, Paul Rauhihi, Glenn Grief, Matt Parsons.

Referee: Bill Harrigan.

* The Knights should cement a top-four place here. They walk the walk more like a grand final side every week. They have an unchanged team, one playing with confidence and making the best of prodigious talent. Adam MacDougall now looks likely to stay, a four-year contract on offer and the Knights apparently about to relent on his desire to try his hand at American Football in the off-season, trials with the San Diego Chargers and Carolina Panthers likely. Tigers half Craig Field continues to be awfully good or awful, making and conceding tries last weekend, their chances contingent on him finding and holding top form. Kiwi prop Jason Lowrie starts after a long injury break and will improve their go-forward. The Tigers are one out of the eight and a loss here will mean an early end to their season.

Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra

Stadium Australia; Sunday, July 23, 4.30 pm.

Bulldogs: Hazem El Masri, Gavin Lester, Darren Smith, Willie Talau, Daryl Halligan, Brent Sherwin, Corey Hughes, Darren Britt (c), Jason Hetherington, Steve Price, Steve Reardon, Jamie Feeney, Glen Hughes; interchange Craig Polla-Mounter, Willie Mason, Adam Peek, Dennis Scott.

Dragons: Luke Patten, Nathan Blacklock, Jason Hooper, Lee Hookey, Amos Roberts, Trent Barrett, Luke Branighan, Craig Smith (c), Nathan Brown (c), Luke Bailey, Andrew Hart, Terry Lamey,Wayne Bartrim; interchange Darren Treacey, Jason Ryles, Justin Smith, Wes Patten.

Referee: Steve Clark.

* The Dogs have lost Steve Price, medial ligament strain, and he may be gone for the season just as they come back for a second run at making the finals. Seemingly out of it a fortnight ago, two wins and kind results elsewhere have them an outside playoff chance and that desperation may be the fuel they need to get over a Dragons side lacking commitment in recent games. The Dragons have impact forward Treacey back after a loose mower blade cut into his shin and sidelined him last weekend. Lee Hookey remains a target for Auckland as they seek speedy outside backs to replace Nigel Vagana. Can Daryl Halligan kick the Dogs to victory in this last-gasp in his last year?? You bet. Can they go further if they do nail a playoff spot?? Unlikely given the lack of class in the halves now Stuart has gone.

Peter Jessup's picks:

Storm

Broncos

Panthers

Roosters

Eels

Knights

Bulldogs

Success rate this season: 63%