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Home / Sport

Roundtable: Who wins the Super Rugby final?

NZ Herald
17 Jun, 2022 02:01 AM7 mins to read

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The players have been revealed for the Super Rugby final at Eden Park. Video / NZ Herald / Getty / Ben Cummins / Supplied

It's perhaps the closest Super Rugby final in history. The TAB have the Blues as $1.80 favourites while the Crusaders are at $1.90 to win at Eden Park on Saturday night.

NZME's stable of rugby writers offer their predictions for the big game.

Liam Napier - Blues:

Almost an impossible final to predict, but I'll say the Blues on the basis of home advantage, their greater attacking threats and Beauden Barrett's form.

Last week's near defeat evokes nervousness tipping the Blues. They very nearly blew it against the Brumbies, and were probably fortunate not to concede a late, potentially match-losing penalty. Through their 15-game unbeaten run, though, the Blues continue to find escapes.

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While the Crusaders defended superbly against the Chiefs, making 222 tackles, they can't give the Blues that much possession. And their bench isn't what it used to be. The Crusaders know how to win finals - five in the past five years.

Speaking to Wayne Smith last week, he tipped the red and blacks to crash the party. You'd usually be mad to disagree with the professor but, on this occasion, I'm going with the romantic scenario of the Blues by a nose.

Elliott Smith - Blues

They've been the frontrunners all competition long - bar that bizarre opening-game loss to the Hurricanes where they capitulated in the last 10 minutes - and have forged a steely sense of belief by winning tight games against the Brumbies (twice) and the Force. But the big statement was the mid-season win in Christchurch, flushing 18 years of belittlement at the hands of the Crusaders and their fans while giving the red and blacks a bloody nose.

They'll have to do it this time without Dalton Papalii - who won't start given his appendix removal - who basically got them over the line last time with a late cover tackle alongside Rieko Ioane. He's a massive loss but not insurmountable for the Blues, however the Crusaders will look to take advantage of his absence (either for the entire game or most of it if he takes his place on the bench).

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Recreate that - by putting the Crusaders under pressure, forcing them to give away penalties, then allow their backs to work their magic - and the Blues will be hard to stop.

Let's not under-estimate the 40k-odd fans who have rediscovered the directions to Eden Park this week (some for the first time in 19 years) and will pack the stands.

The Blues' best this year has been better than the Crusaders' best. Replicate that tomorrow and they win. That's not to count the Crusaders out - it might take home advantage to get the Blues home here, but I suspect they will. Just.

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Will Jordan from The Crusaders is tackled by Finlay Christie from the Blues during the round four Super Rugby Pacific match between the Crusaders and the Blues. Photo / Getty Images.
Will Jordan from The Crusaders is tackled by Finlay Christie from the Blues during the round four Super Rugby Pacific match between the Crusaders and the Blues. Photo / Getty Images.

Hamish Clark - Crusaders

The Blues should win, but they won't.

And here is why: This weekend the Crusaders are the underdogs – how often can you say that?

The Blues have the game to lose and that is the difference. Watching from Christchurch, it has been great to see the Blues winning – it's great for Auckland and great for New Zealand rugby.

But have they got it for finals footy? The Blues just scrapped in against the Brumbies. They last played in a (proper) Super Rugby final in 2003. They won that match before going into a 19-year drought.

On the other side of the ledger, the Crusaders have played 16 Super Rugby finals and won 12 times. The men from the south are a grand finals footy team.

Pretty much everyone going to Eden Park tomorrow night will be hoping the Blues win – not expecting the Blues to win. And that's the difference.

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The Crusaders expect to win the game – they also have all their key players back, men who know what it takes to win a final.

The pressure is also mounting on the Auckland coaching staff – they will be nervous as hell in the lead up to kickoff. The players will be having kittens – excited by the prospect of playing in front of a sell-out crowd but wary of the Crusaders.

The Crusaders will be the opposite - calm, excited by the final, relishing the challenge. The Crusaders will have the patience to grind out a win. Do the Blues have the same patience right up to the 80th minute?

I don't think so.

Kate Wells - Crusaders:

This is a controversial question for me, as I'm a big rugby fan but I'm also a realist. My heart wants the Blues to win but my head thinks the Crusaders will yet again win another Super Rugby crown.

I've enjoyed watching the Blues go from strength to strength under Leon MacDonald. They are playing a magnificent brand of rugby. But watching the 14-man Crusaders demolish the Chiefs last Friday rejigged my memory of how dangerous they are in finals footy. There's something about their winning culture that sets them apart from the rest.

I would love to see the Blues prove my head wrong and lift the trophy at the Garden of Eden tonight.

D'Arcy Waldegrave - Blues:

Rugby will be the winner? OK, quit beating around the bush. The Blues will be Super Rugby Pacific champions. If there is one team who can take the wind out of the City of Sails' first XV, it's the marauding horde from the flatlands. But the Crusaders have yet to show that famed clinical and cut-throat hand. The irresistible Blues in front of an overdue, fanatical packed house will prevail. Beauden Barrett will orchestrate a high-paced, high-powered symphony. It's 2003 again. Gee I hope I'm wrong.

Kris Shannon - Crusaders:

All signs point blue. Leon MacDonald's side were clearly the best team this season and they would have taken a perfect record into the final were it not for a wild Hurricanes comeback in week one. Their round-robin victory over the Crusaders was narrow, yes, but only because the Blues allowed the home side back into the contest. They will be buoyed by a sold-out Eden Park, packed with fans starved of success, and in Beauden Barrett they boast the player most likely to give those fans something to celebrate. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are the Crusaders. I'm taking the Crusaders.

Taine Plumtree of the Blues looks on following the round nine Super Rugby Aotearoa match between the Crusaders and the Blues. Photo / Getty Images.
Taine Plumtree of the Blues looks on following the round nine Super Rugby Aotearoa match between the Crusaders and the Blues. Photo / Getty Images.

Winston Aldworth - Blues:

Retro is in fashion: Top Gun soars at the box office, National seem likely to be elected on a platform of trickle-down economics and Kate Bush is top of the charts. So, it follows logically that the Blues will win, because nothing could be more retro than Auckland having a better rugby team than Christchurch.

It helps that Beauden Barrett is better than he's been in years, and playing behind the best pack in the competition with the most explosive backline outside him.

For the Crusaders there's nothing to prove, for the Blues everything.

Christopher Reive - Crusaders:

In our preseason roundtable, I said: "every team plays 'x' number of matches, then the Crusaders lift the title and Scott Robertson does a jig". And I stand by it. But I think it comes down to how well they have recovered from being battered by the Chiefs last weekend. The Blues have a few more errors in them and can let teams back into the game. Neither of those things bodes well against the Crusaders, who do the basics well, strike when given the chance, and will back their defence against the swift Blues attack. It could be decided by one moment, but I'm leaning towards the Crusaders.

Jason Pine - Blues:

As a Hurricanes fan, I've got absolutely no skin in this game, so that makes it easy to be impartial...but I honestly can't pick a winner. This is immovable object vs irresistible force, both teams packed with talent and potential game-breakers. I'm going to tip the Blues, but only because it possibly means slightly more to this silverware-famished franchise than the perennial champion Crusaders. Having said that, it'd be no surprise to see Razor breakdancing on Eden Park at 9.30pm Saturday.

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