KEY POINTS:
After working out it was going to be hard to find too many winners because of the outstanding level of form in all Te Rapa races today, they've forecast rain to make it doubly difficult.
Rain is meant to set in from late morning. Even allowing that Te
Rapa is better than almost any track atcoping with rain on the day, it would have to affect the form if the forecasters are right.
The good news in all that is that the $100,000 Travis Stakes hot favourite Katy Keen (No1, R8) doesn't seem to mind what the track conditions are. Katy Keen has won on a dead surface and from three starts in the slow stuff she's had two wins and a placing. She has been in such sparkling form that anything but a win, regardless of conditions, would be a surprise.
Kirra Sand does not mind easing of the ground, even though she iscapable on any surface, and as a dual winner at Te Rapa, she makes appeal. Simply forget she went around in the Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha - everything that could go wrong, did. Dutyful is smart and Vercors has been running on well over shorter distances and should appreciate the 2000m this time.
Even if it rains, the juvenile event, Race 1 at 11.20am, should get away with a decent track. Which is a good thing because there is some smart emerging talent engaged. Murphy (No8), Karamu (No5) and Triple Eaze (No9) are debut types that have shown rare potential. They are going to need to be smart to handle the more experienced types like Claremont Princess (No13) and Bright Spark (No2). Claremont Princess looked good when finishing third to All In Brawl at Trentham in January. She has been freshened and has a nice barrier draw. Triple Eaze impressed at the Cambridge trials, but has a wide gate.
You can generally bet on Kevin Gray when he travels a horse. The bonus is that Mega Belt (No2, R3) has performed well in rain-affected going. He has been in outstanding form, chasing Shamrock Star home two starts back then scoring easily in this grade last time. The outside barrier looks daunting on paper, but there is a long run down the back straight from the 1600m start at Te Rapa. Rain or not, he looks the horse to beat. Rain would help Indikator (No7).
The $85,000 Windsor Park Breeders Stakes field is outstanding. There is a huge amount of speed in the race and that might make it a bit more difficult for a horse coming over from mid-field, but if Martini Red (No8, R5) can slot in somewhere close before the first bend, she could prove difficult to manage. The 1400m and a wide gate combined to beat her at Ellerslie last start, but 1200m on this track is more to her liking. Crossyourheart (No7) was beaten a nose last start by Bow Lane, who opposes her again here, but this time a 4kg swing in the weights in favour of Crossyourheart should switch that back the other way. Dashing Donna (No10) raced five lengths off her true form last time and can be in this with a peak performance. Tough but fascinating race.
Occidentalis (No11, R6) looked good in only three starts last campaign and always gave the impression he'd get better. He's fresh here, a state he's won in, but the problem is the wide gate at the 1200m. If Leith Innes can get him a decent passage from out there, he can still figure. The only time that Resounding (No7) has been beaten in three starts is when he struck thatterrible track at Awapuni on Sires Produce day. He'd looked smart winning his first two. Gold Merit (No6), particularly if it rains, can be right in it.
Rain would probably be no friend to Shevchenko (No2, R7), but he is a strong winning chance if the track stays reasonable. It took a useful horse in Cape Fear to beat him in a photo last time and the step to 2000m will help.
Mill Vinnie (No3) was beaten by the draw when third at Ellerslie last start and is another who should not be hampered by getting up in distance to 2000m. Interestingly, he has won on a slow track. Zlato (No8) could be a trifecta chance.
The sprint, Race 9, looks a nightmare. Pinsoir (No5) should be in it if the track stays decent and Who Knows (No2) is a big chance. Very tough. El Perez (No3) goes well when fresh. Watch him if it rains.
The conditions of the last suit Queen Of Keros (No1, R10). She won with the same 58kg in R70 at Ellerslie last start and the daughter of Zabeel and Maurine shouldn't find the task too much in a special conditions scenario. Mathias (No5) was beaten in stakes class last start and will find this a lot easier. Lily L'Amour (No4) has been impressive.
Lisa Cropp took her season total to 100 wins on Red Phoenix at Awapuni yesterday then for good measure went to 101 on Electriclite.
Juice looked an ideal Guineas horse for next season when she gritted her way to a nice win in the $55,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Stakes at Avondale yesterday.
The John Wheeler-trained filly hit the line too strongly with a determination at the end of the 1200m thatprovided the hint she would be theperfect 1600m horse as a 3-year-old.
Juice had been luckless in her previous racing and her second to Sufficient in the Champagne Stakes at her previous start was a great guide to yesterday.