KEY POINTS:
It's a waste of time asking Paul Nelson if he feels he might have the upper hand with veteran Just Not Cricket over the favourite Mario in tomorrow's $123,000 SkyCity Auckland Great Northern Hurdles.
Mario comes into the tough race with just four hurdle races behind him.
He's
won three of them - two in brilliant fashion - but this time faces the most rugged horse he's lined up against in Just Not Cricket in one of the most rugged races for hurdlers.
But Nelson says he's not the one to ask about Mario's light experience over fences because two years ago Just Not Cricket won the Great Northern at only his fourth jumping start.
"If Just Not Cricket can do it there's no reason why Mario can't."
You probably couldn't get a more fascinating contest than this one.
In the blue corner is Mario, the 'young' buck with limited experience up against the red corner of war horse Just Not Cricket, going for three straight wins in the marathon.
And it doesn't end there - Just Not Cricket is ridden by the vastly experienced and successful jumps rider Jonathan Riddell and Mario is in the hands of Corey Parish, a relative newcomer to jumps riding who shows both enthusiasm and talent.
The Northern Hurdles is a grinder's race. It's at an extreme distance for hurdlers and the final 600m can find the younger, inexperienced horses out.
In Mario's favour is a decided weight advantage. Just Not Cricket has 69kg and Mario a much more comfortable 64.5kg.
Just Not Cricket has won his two Northerns with 63.5kg - beating Yourtheman and Poacher in 2006 - and 66kg heading home Pasco and Counter Punch last year.
The 69kg this time is a big ask, but to be fair to Just Not Cricket, he lumped 68kg through the worst conditions possible to win last month's Grand National Hurdles at Riccarton.
Paul Nelson falls short of saying he believes Just Not Cricket is better than when he went into last year's Northern, but believes the preparation is perhaps more favourable this time.
"Last year he had a long campaign going into the race.
"This time he's had just the four hurdle races and I see that as a positive, because it can turn into quite a long season."
The tempo of the race will help decide the result - Mario has a remarkable sprint which could establish a break on the field at some point, whereas the 11-year-old Just Not Cricket is extremely dour and loves to grind his opposition into surrender.
The Ellerslie footing was a heavy 9 yesterday and Auckland Racing Club racing manager Butch Castles said it was significantly better than the desperately testing track on Pakuranga Hunt Cup day two weeks ago.
"I walked on it this morning and I was surprised how it felt. A little bit of rain, but not too much, would probably loosen it up nicely."
* Last night's odds: $2.50 Mario; $7 Just Not Cricket; $8 Arreviderci; $11 Wolf Pack, Opus Dei; $12 Ravanelli; $13 Montezuma; $14 The Shoe, Pole; $18 Blackheart; $31 Seasons Greetings; $41 Cherani; $51 Golden Crusader.
REPEAT HOPES
* The two Northerns are rich with history and exciting races are guaranteed.
* The little-experienced Mario takes on the winner of the last two Great Northern Hurdles, Just Not Cricket and is $2.50 favourite.
* Just Not Cricket has to overcome 69kg.
* Hypnotize is after back-to-back Great Northern Steeplechases and was yesterday at $1.90 to achieve it.
* Despite his 68.5kg, it's difficult to make a case to beat him.