Racing: Pride and relief as Probabeel wins on return at Cockram Stakes at Caulfield

Probabeel claimed a tight victory. Photo / Supplied

Trainer Jamie Richards felt pride and relief when superstar Kiwi mare Probabeel returned with a win at Caulfield on Saturday.

The pride came from the now five-year-old being able to overcome her wide draw to in the A$200,000 Cockram Stakes, a Group 3 over a 1200m distance short of Probabeel's best.

And the relief came from Richards having made the right decision not to go to his initial aim with Probebeel, the A$1million Memsie Stakes, which was run two races after the Cockram.

Probabeel was heading that way until a minor setback two weeks ago but that was enough for Richards and her owners to change plans, even though she would have been one of the favourites for a race worth five times more.

"Watching that I think she would have been found out at weight-for-age over 1400m fresh-up so I think we pulled the right rein," says Richards, who watched the race from home in Matamata.

"She can only improve with that run so she will be ready for the big boys in three weeks."

It was a huge win from Probabeel coming out of the New Zealand winter and with only two quiet trials under her belt, especially as Caulfield was favouring those closest to the rail.

Probabeel is working her way toward the A$5 million Cox Plate at The Valley on October 23 and will probably race at 1400m in three weeks and then a mile at her next start but Richards has one concern.

"We have a plan but the one thing that would change that would be wet tracks," says Richards.

"We are reluctant to run her on anything worse than soft and if that happened to be the track conditions come Cox Plate, with it being at the top of her distance range, then she could miss it.

"But we are hoping that isn't the case and the Cox Plate remains the big aim."

The Probabeel team do have a lucrative back-up plan though as the A$1million Empire Rose at Flemington on October 30 for mares over 1600m is a perfect race for Probabeel and it carries a A$1 million bonus if the winner has already won one of a series of lead-up races, some of which are on Probabeel's radar.

While Probabeel was able to overcome starting from the worst draw and carrying the 60kg equal topweight, fellow Kiwi star Aegon had no such luck in the Memsie.

The Cambridge four-year-old settled back of midfield and never got into clear air until too late to be a factor, running on late to finish fourth in the A$1 million Group 1 won by Behemoth.

That was always a chance of happening to Aegon, but his performance will give trainers Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman encouragement he can run with the weight-for-age horses, especially when he gets to a more suitable 1600m.