It's a while since we've seen a race in which barrier draws are more crucial than tomorrow's $150,000 Cambridge Stud Sire Tristram Fillies Classic.
If they ran this race in lanes and every horse had an equal chance, you wouldn't know where to look. Such is the strengthof the 3-year-old fillies this season.
The one who is most greatly affected by the draw at the tricky 2000m start at Te Rapa is the last-start Desert Gold Stakes winner Keepa Cruisin.
The 2000m is likely to be at the end of her distance index - she was scratched at the barrier in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie at her only possible attempt at the distance.
There are two options from wide draws over 2000m at Te Rapa: go forward and try and cross the speed horses, or drop back.
The former would use energy that might leave Keepa Cruisin found wanting late in the race and the second option means a sustained run from the back of the field late.
Satinka (No 12) and Insouciant (No 11) are similarly disadvantaged and Sing Song Girl (No 14) and Boundless from the No 16 gate are even worse off.
All of which works in favour of Kaatoon, who impressively chased Keepa Cruisin home in the Desert Gold, Keffiya and the rapidly improving Calatrava.
Not that the winning chances end there. Lanbrae looked a good thing beaten when checked then beaten narrowly in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie and Pretty Vegas was unlucky in the Eight Carat Classic and Royal Stakes.
