Waitak has not won since his come-from-last victory in the Railway at Pukekohe on New Year’s Day last year.
One of racing’s most intriguing questions will be played out in the feature race at Tauranga today.
Do even good horses forget how to win?
The $150,000 Japan Trophy highlights a day that feels like the calm after the storm as the Group racing season winds down.
It also features a race that contains some serious proven Group 1 performers in Waitak (Race 7, No 1), Aegon (No 5), Skyman (No 6) and Dark Destroyer (No 9).
None of them have won a race in the past year.
The last of the high-quality quartet to taste victory was Waitak in his come-from-last victory in the Railway at Pukekohe on New Year’s Day last year.
Aegon’s drought goes back to October 2022, Dark Destroyer to his Group 1 success in the Tarzino in September 2022, when he beat Imperatriz, while Skyman last won a race in April 2023.
There are, of course, excuses and reasons why four such brave and talented horses stop winning.
Dark Destroyer has been troubled by physical issues, while Skyman and Aegon have spent much of their time since their last wins chasing world-class gallopers such as Mr Brightside, Golden Sixty and Zaaki.
The more you win, the closer you get to elite level, and once racing in that grade, horses can perform to the same level that got them there but simply not win any more.
The jump from good handicap or more likely age-group company to Group 1 weight-for-age might be three to five lengths and that is usually the difference between winning and finishing midfield.
Good horses can still win serious money once they become Group 1 journeymen and with all four of today’s big names being geldings, their choices are racing without winning or retirement.
But you have to wonder if horses are like humans and, after a while, they learn how to look after themselves, not strain to that extra level, and just relax and be comfortable with their place in life.
Sounds kind of nice. Go to the races 12 times a year, see your mates, get looked after like a king but not really have to try too hard.
That question undergoes its deepest examination on days such as today.
You can make valid excuses for Waitak for many of his defeats in the past year, as he has run amazing sectionals chasing superstar sprinters.
But today he is the superstar, so does he still want to burn those lungs and strain those legs enough to run past his rivals? Co-trainer Lance O’Sullivan thinks so.
“He really should be winning this race,” he tells the Weekend Herald.
“The way he’s been racing, it looks ideal, and while the track may not be perfect for a horse with his racing style, we can’t change that.”
Aegon’s trainer Andrew Forsman has campaigned so many good horses in Australia he understands what the horse has done in the two and a half years since he last won.
If Aegon had stayed out of those fights and just knocked around New Zealand for the past two years he would have been certain to pick up another win or two. But he wouldn’t be a $2 million earner.
And owning a Group 1 horse is about more than money. It is about experiences, being on the biggest stage at the biggest meetings, giving your horse his shot against the best.
Of the potential drought-breakers who head to Tauranga today, Aegon might be the best placed: suited by the weights, well drawn and racing at his favoured 1600m.
If he sits close to the speed and gets a clear run, he might burst clear at the 200m and feel like the Aegon of younger years.
He could easily win without surprising anybody or he could finish fourth (again), which would also not shock.
Ditto for Waitak, same for Skyman.
Because even if everything goes their way today, if the body is right, willpower intact and Lady Luck wants to hold their hand again, they still have to win.
And that means these wonderful racing warriors running past Wild Night, Herbert, Navigator and Hasstobeawinner, horses with maybe less physical and/or mental scars.
As they say, it is tough at the top.
Riccarton meeting could have been run on a very heavy track but common sense prevailed.