KEY POINTS:
Trainers will be thinking $700,000 as much as the $75,000 HS Dyke Waikato Guineas at Te Rapa tomorrow.
This is a nice stake and a nice race to win - but connections of the leading 3-year-olds engaged at Te Rapa have their sights on the $700,000 Mercedes Derby
at Ellerslie On March 1.
John Sargent, in the middle of a golden streak, is in the envious position of having the favourite for this race, IL Divo, as well as last Sunday's Ellerslie winner Red Ruler heading to the Derby.
You couldn't find two more different horses.
You've got Il Divo with a bomb-proof temperament who has had a long, slow traditional Derby build-up.
Red Ruler is the brash new kid on the block who has essentially been winning on natural raw ability and has a lot to learn about racing.
He will have his next start in the $100,000 Championship Stakes at Ellerslie in two weeks.
Il Divo finished a close second to Prince Kaapstad in the unsuitable sit-sprint Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. He was left flat-footed at the top of the straight and rallied late.
"He's an adaptable horse and he's drawn well," said Sargent at yesterday's Karaka sales.
From the No 1 barrier, Jason Waddell should be able to slot Il Divo into a position just behind the speed and relax, which the Don Eduardo 3-year-old does well.
"He'll be better for this, but he's fit enough to win," said Sargent.
Co-trainer Paddy Busuttin admits he's looking forward to a change of luck with well-bred emerging stayer Six O'Clock News.
The Zabeel-Maurine gelding was one of the worst affected by the go-slow tactics in the Great Northern Guineas.
As a natural back-runner he was forced to make a move around the field wide at the 700m, right at the point where the leaders started increasing the speed. He fought well for third and subsequently had no luck at all when narrowly beaten by tomorrow's race rival Sircross over 1600m at Te Rapa on Wednesday last week.
Six O'Clock News was travelling sideways looking for a home-straight gap, while Sircross was steaming down the outside in the final 300m and was only half a length behind at the finish.
"I was surprised at the acceleration he showed after being held up," said Paddy Busuttin. "The big factor in his favour is that he can accelerate quickly."
Like most punters, Busuttin rates Sircross, Prince Kaapstad, Il Divo and Pierre Joseph the horses to beat.
The job for Six O'Clock News and promising Sircross has been made that much more difficult by having drawn outside barriers.
There is a short run to the bend out of the home straight from the 2000m starting point at Te Rapa, generally leaving only the two options to avoid being left out wide - press forward and try to get in, or drop to the tail of the field.
Pierre Joseph came back from a two-month break to win over 1400m at Avondale last start and jumps straight up to 2000m.
Trainer Stephen McKee said the unusual campaign had been forced on him.
"The way the programmes are there wasn't a lot of choice. He might lack racing, but he doesn't lack fitness. I'm not too worried about it."
Unlike the other leading chances, Pierre Joseph has not raced beyond 1600m, yet it is something which has always looked to be the colt's destiny.
"I've been waiting six months for this," admits McKee.
It was a particularly game effort by Pierre Joseph to win at Avondale. He kicked back strongly in the final stages to win by a neck after Craig Grylls had to use him early to get across from the outside gate.
A good barrier draw was a big asset in Prince Kaapstad's Great Northern Guineas victory - he was in the right place at the right time when the sprint came on at the 400m and he got to the line strongly.
He subsequently didn't sprint the same when fifth in Alamosa's Wellington Stakes, but that could have been because of dropping back to 1600m. Over 2000m this time and once again from the perfect barrier draw, he should be a lot more competitive.