Major 2-year-old races run in wet conditions - it's like skiing on very patchy snow, you just don't know what's going to happen.
Last year's $125,000 Duke Of Bedford Matamata Breeders Stakes was run on a wet track and form went out the window when hot favourite IlQuello Veloce was beaten by $15 shot Te Akau Coup after Jason Waddell took a remarkable gamble to stay on the rail as the entire field headed to the outside carpark on the home bend.
Rain is forecast again for tomorrow's edition of the race.
On paper this race looks extremely difficult to sort out on form - if it rains, well, take your lucky number.
The Mark Walker-trained Corsage probably would have gone close to winning the Karaka Million had she not been badly stopped at the 375m.
That was only her third raceday start and it's fair to assume she might have gained experience for the cost of a $600,000 winning stake.
Newcomers who have greatly impressed lately in winning debuts are Sitara, Obsession and St Germaine.
St Germaine produced a remarkable effort at Hawera.
She jumped with the field then started bucking. Buddy Lammas was perhaps lucky to stay with her, but the damage had been done when she drifted to a clear last.
Lammas went to go wide around them on the home bend, then thought again and rode for luck along the inside rail. A gap, or more accurately a sliver of room, appeared on the inside and St Germaine did well for an inexperienced filly to push through.
With the benefit of that run she shapes as a big danger tomorrow.
Obsession was stunning when winning her debut at Pukekohe. She has tremendous potential.
