KEY POINTS:
Jason Waddell jumped off Shining Light after finishing second to Katy Keen in last week's Manawatu Breeders Stakes and said: "Wait until this mare gets a bit of rain."
Well, Shining Light has come up with a lot more than a little rain for tomorrow's $130,000 Hawkes Bay
Gold Cup, but it may not matter.
Given the rain Hawkes Bay has received this week the Hastings track will be well into the soft zone and could be worse, depending on the level of rain today.
Shining Light was no match for Katy Keen at Manawatu, but that is no discredit to her.
Take her out of that Breeders Stakes and you would have said Shining Light was a stylish five-length winner.
The horses behind Shining Light were not up to this class, but a combination of a light weight, 53kg and her ability to manage rain-affected footing put the Matamata mare right in this race.
Jason Waddell is required for stablemate Fiscal Madness in tomorrow's $75,000 Christchurch Casino Easter Cup Stakes at Riccarton and wouldn't have been able to make Shining Light's 53kg anyway and the mare will be ridden by Noel Harris.
Trainer John Sargent had originally intended starting Shining Light in next week's $140,000 Travis Stakes at Te Rapa and Katy Keen was meant to target the Hawkes Bay Cup, but when Katy Keen was redirected to the Travis Stakes, Sargent took the option to head to Hastings.
"She can then head on to the Rotorua Cup, which is $150,000."
On a reasonable surface, Penitentiary was set up to be a real danger in this race, but co-trainer Chris Otto said yesterday the way the Hastings track was heading it was very doubtful the horse would make the trip from Te Awamutu.
Which puts the two topweights, Valley Chief and All Square, right into the race.
On a firm track Valley Chief won this race last year carrying the same 57.5kg. He trailed the eventual runner-up Gorgeous George that day and received a saloon passage down the inside rail in the final stages to make it two from two on the track.
He is just as good when dominating in front himself and it would be no surprise to see him take this race up early. From a wide gate, rider Reese Jones will have few options and is certain to press forward and look for the front.
All Square is a tough stayer whose latest form is better than it reads on paper. Under 58kg he made ground to be only 2.75 lengths off Ntamack in the Te Aroha Cup last start on a track that was dominated by on-pace runners.
Before that she was only 3.5 lengths off Sir Slick in the weight-for-age at Awapuni, a race that did not suit him as much as this one.
All Square is a winner on the course and should manage the conditions provided they don't turn worse tomorrow. The form underneath these three runners is very mixed. Many will have problems with the footing if it ends up in the second half of the slow range.
One who may not is local runner The Veep, who can mix his form better than most.
Sabin Kirkland deserves to win the Te Runga Stud 3YO at Hastings with Eel Win.
Only the brave travel a horse from Invercargill to Hawkes Bay for a $50,000 race and Kirkland deserves what he gets.
Eel Win will head straight back to the South Island after this one race with a possible final start for the season at Riccarton in two weeks if he races right up to his best at Hastings.
"I'm very happy with him," said Kirkland, halfway through his long trip yesterday.
"He won at Gore on a wet track, but maybe his class got him there.
"The reassuring point is his dam Escapade was good when it rained."
GOLD CUP
* Shining Light will not mind the rain-affected track she faces tomorrow.
* The Matamata mare is coming off a notable second to highly talented Katy Keen in the Manawatu Breeders last start.
* Katy Keen was to have targeted this race, but will now start instead in next week's $140,000 Travis Stakes.