Mike Dillon: Firm track should help punters

A terrific each-way bet at odds on the day is No Cash IT'S like hearing Dan Carter and Richie McCaw have just been added as late starters to an All Blacks' test line-up.

A firm track for Hastings today, when the opposite looked likely a week ago. It's a blessing that hadn't been anticipated.

Punting's never easy, but just perhaps this has made it a touch easier.

There is still a question on how much value can be obtained from betting on the feature, the $225,000 Mudgway Partsworld Stakes.

You certainly wouldn't want to be taking less than the $2.50 the TAB have been offering on Mufhasa (No3, R9) on the fixed odds.

He's probably going to win the race - he's exceptional - but for the first big race of the season with so many variables, $2.50 has a whiff of unders about it.

Boxed trifectas and quinellas may be the best bet, just in case the scenario many imagine with Mufhasa in front or outside the leader then putting pressure on from the home turn does not quite work out.

Prince Kaapstad (No8) and Fritzy Boy, (No6) despite his wide barrier, are multiple musts and beyond that there is a lot of potential for value.

There is probably going to be at least one surprise spot in the final trifecta. It could be Sarrera (No1) or Occidentalis (No12) and you probably have to have Bulginbaah (No2) and Il Quello Veloce, (No15) even though the Matamata mare is going to be better for the race.

Sam's Town(No8, R1) has won only one race from nine starts, but he's always looked promising. He comes in fresh, but had a sharpen-up at the Te Teko trials where he helped chase home stylish winner Sandblaster. The No 1 draw on a very good track might be a big assist.

Special conditions maiden races are never easy. Keyora (No5, R2) has had only the four starts as a juvenile last season and has looked good on a couple of occasions. He was never in the right place on the tricky track for the group one Manawatu Sires at his last start in the autumn and resumes here with a trip from Taranaki and back to the Te Teko trials behind him. This is a very tricky race and the likes of Mr Thorpedo (No8) and Xante (No2) are right in contention

Events like Race 3, the $30,000 3-year-old 1200m are as much about fitness as they are ability. All the leading chances are resuming from winter spells and readiness will be the key.

Seven Schillings (No2, R3) may be the each-way value. She showed good ability last season and appeals as the type to go well fresh. The slightly wide barrier won't help, but her talent will. Corsage (No3) wasn't far away from the best juveniles and didn't always receive the best luck in running. Her second to Occidentalis at the Te Teko trials was impressive. She also represents great each-way value.

Race 4, the R94, 2000, could be a trap. Dubhdara (No1, R4) has 59kg to carry, but his form has been more solid than most. If he's really short, he won't be value. If you need to make lunch, this would be a good time to do it.

Desert Lad (No2, R5) is no champ. But he should have won at Te Rapa last start. Shelley Houston won't mind us saying so, but had she stayed behind the eventual pacemaking winner The Jungle Boy on the home bend instead of scouting out wide looking for space ahead, she probably would have got the money.

He's unlikely to string three or four wins together, but neither will the rest of them. Macastar (No7) is worth another chance - that run at Te Rapa was better than it looked.

John Wheeler is disappointed he couldn't get The Pooka (No7, R6) into the Mudgway Stakes, which means he's got to be a royal chance in a R94 event. The Pooka didn't win a race last season, but he's one of the best horses of his type in the country.

He won nicely at the Te Teko trials and will give this line-up a shake. The value in the race is Can't Keeper Down, who has talent, but it's difficult to see her troubling The Pooka.

All In Black (No9, R7) could be a touch of value. The betting is all around Samurai, (No3) Capecover (No1) and Harris Tweed (No5) and any of those, with Six O'Clock News (No6), could win without surprising, but All In Black is talented and has some impressive stats - one fresh-up start for a win and two wins from four starts at the 1600m.

Take notes from this race - it's going to be a great indicator for spring.

A terrific each-way bet at odds on the day is No Cash (No10, R8). He's trained locally and has a very good fresh-up record. Don't go mad, but the odds should be useful. Morelle (No13) had to make his run too early when beaten a neck at Ruakaka last time.

Given that was his first start after a lengthy spell it was a smart run. He should be improved and is a previous winner at Hastings.

Wall Street (No8, R10) has been a bit of a trick to get organised and as a 5-year-old he's had only five race starts. But now that Jeff Lynds seems to have him under control he should continue the top form he's been showing.

He can really find the line and that's going to suit this race.