All Blacks squad selection: Potential players facing challenges amid midfield competition – Paul Lewis

Quinn Tupaea of the Gallagher Chiefs, pictured during a Chiefs v Crusaders match at FMG Stadium in Hamilton on Friday, February 21, 2025. Photo / Jeremy Ward / www.photosport.nz

It seems unconscionable after the season he’s had, but it may be that there’s no room in the first All Blacks squad of the year for forceful Chiefs midfielder Quinn Tupaea.

Impressive in just about everything he’s done this year after missing last season with a bad injury, Tupaea is competing for a place in the logjam of the midfield – arguably the most contested section of the squad, other than the loose forwards.

This is written before the Super Rugby Pacific final and the direct and perhaps deciding clash between Tupaea and the man who may hold down a squad place ahead of him: David Havili. Havili can also play fullback and first five at a pinch (and kick goals) – and that kind of versatility can spell the difference between a congratulatory or explanatory phone call.

The gridlock in the midfield is considerable. New Zealand coach Scott Robertson is likely to do a 19-16 split between backs and forwards. That means the midfield may be restricted to four players, especially if the Crusaders’ Chay Fihaki (who covers wing and centre) makes it into the squad as a fullback/winger behind Will Jordan.

Look, too, at who is trying to shoehorn their way into this squad and at some of the question marks that surround them: Jordie Barrett – returned from his Leinster adventure, but will Robertson and co want to give him a break or slip him straight back into action? Anton Lienert-Brown is technically an incumbent but has missed much of the Super Rugby Pacific season with two bad injuries. It may be that Robertson will want to keep him in the squad if his broken collarbone has healed fast enough.

If Jordie Barrett is selected, as expected, Tupaea may not be – though he is clearly next man in if Barrett is rested. Their styles are similar, although Barrett has a stronger kicking game and covers fullback. Lienert-Brown remains a consideration; the two centres are likely to be Rieko Ioane and Billy Proctor, and Lienert-Brown can also cover 13, as he has done for his entire career.

There is a solution in expanding the midfield numbers to five, though that feels like overkill, especially when the selectors must settle on a wing to replace Mark Telea’s overseas departure (or will Robertson, as he has done before, play him in spite of his jaunt to Japan?). Most are picking Jordan, Caleb Clarke, Sevu Reece, Emoni Narawa, Leroy Carter and either Ruben Love or Fihaki for the six outside backs.

Some with not much love for the Crusaders – particularly after that silly, priggish ban of cowbells (yes, let’s remove all colour from our rugby fans, often berated for being too vanilla) – will cry bias if Havili makes it ahead of Tupaea. It will come down to how the All Blacks want to play; whether they want Tupaea’s gain-line strengths or Havili’s subtle skills, which generally benefit those around him.

However, there is another candidate – either as midfield or wing cover. He’s now a longer shot after the Highlanders didn’t make the playoffs, but you fancy the All Blacks selectors have been sorely tempted by the sight of Timoci Tavatavanawai burgling turnover after turnover during the Super Rugby Pacific season. For the All Blacks’ style of play, particularly counter-attacking or open-field rugby, turnovers are a must; Tavatavanawai is a considerable extra weapon in that department. He is also a bustling bus of a ball carrier, all power and low centre of gravity, with a fend to match.

He is a little reminiscent of one who got away: Bundee Aki, for a time the best No 12 in the world for Ireland but who never rose above Counties-Manukau and Super Rugby level here and has that same squat power and presence in the midfield as Tavatavanawai. The latter may need to brush up on his distribution skills, should he graduate to international level in the midfield, but his claims are strong in an era when the All Blacks are looking to play an expansive game, searching for something different to give them front-foot ball against smothering defences.

Unhappily for Tupaea, Tavatavanawai’s style is similar enough to form another obstacle in the Chiefs man’s quest to regain his All Blacks jersey. He is no stranger to a turnover but Tavatavanawai has made it something of an art form – hovering near the tackled ball to pull off his “jackals”.

That positioning is a hard skill to combat. Cleaners can aim at him and i’s theoretically possible for ball carriers to run at Tavatavanawai to make him the tackler and thus lessen the chances of a turnover – though the speed and crowded defences of international rugby make that difficult. A precise kicking game could also partly dampen the threat of a turnover expert, but the All Blacks won’t mind teams kicking to them at all.

If we are talking second fives, we cannot dismiss the claims of the Hurricanes’ Bailyn Sullivan, who showed fine defensive and attacking qualities, while the Blues’ A.J. Lam is a strong competitor too – but Lam is maybe number seven behind those six candidates when it comes to playing 12.

In the end, it will come down to the type of game the All Blacks want to play – and we all know what that is – and how much Robertson wants to balance winning with development of depth and previously little-tried players.