Olympics: Adams' rival in worrying form - but don't panic

Adams' best this year is 21.03m at Rome in May. Photo / AP.

As the news filtered slowly back from the landlocked former Soviet republic of Belarus, it was enough to send a chill through those expecting another New Zealand shot put coronation.

Nadzeya Ostapchuk, Valerie Adams' principal rival for gold in London, had come back from a break and was suddenly hurling the shot extraordinary distances. In June, in the capital Minsk, she set a national record of 21.13m. That was frightening enough - Adams' best this year is 21.03m at Rome in May.

As it turns out, the 31-year-old was merely clearing her throat. At Grodno, a fortress town nestled in the shadow of the Polish and Lithuanian borders, Ostapchuk twice shattered her national record with throws of 21.32m and 21.39m.

Breathe slowly and deeply when you consider this - Adams' personal best is 21.24m.

So, the question is: Who travels to the London Olympics as favourite? The answer is Adams. She is a gamer.

Cosseted away in the Swiss town of Magglingen under the watchful eye of Jean-Pierre Egger, Adams has paid passing interest to the exploits of her rival, but her single focus will be on throwing the shot put as far as she can on August 6. She knows she can do nothing about how far Ostapchuk throws.

"Valerie's on track," said her manager Nick Cowan, "she's feeling good about where she's at.

"Nadzeya Ostapchuk throwing well is not a negative. It's going to be a great competition. Valerie has total respect for Nadzeya Ostapchuk. She knows she's capable of throwing a long way."

Another thing going for Adams is that she knows she can produce in the white-hot atmosphere of an Olympic final. That's what disappointed her the most about Olympia in 2004. Not that she didn't win a medal, but the fact she let the occasion and the history get to her. Eighth place wasn't too bad, especially given she was a raw 19-year-old recovering from an appendectomy, but it ate at Adams that she had, in her eyes, under-performed.

Four years later in Beijing, she simply destroyed her opponents, including Ostapchuk who was beaten into bronze by her compatriot Natallia Mikhnevich.

The other thing in Adams' favour is that Ostapchuk's career has been defined by these out-of-the-blue performance spikes. She's made a habit of coming into a season hot, and then her performance slowly subsides. She also has a reputation for throwing significantly better at home in Belarus than she does outside her comfort zone.

You can't guarantee it will happen again, but there's every chance that come Olympic final time, she will be throwing significantly short of her 21.39m personal best. Adams is the opposite: you'd be surprised if she wasn't challenging her top mark. So the message is: it's okay to be watchful, but don't panic.