Odds on for medal windfall next year

New Zealand canoeist Lisa Carrington will compete in the women's K1 200m for New Zealand at the Olympic Games in London. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Surprise Olympic medallists are rare in this era of sophisticated athlete tracking, so there's every confidence New Zealand will enjoy a successful Games in Rio next year if 2015 is anything to go by.

This country produced a good number of world champions this year, many in Olympic sports, which should translate to medals in Rio.

Sometimes a year after an Olympics is less competitive, as many athletes take a break, but they are generally more competitive the year before an Olympic Games.

High Performance Sport New Zealand have targeted 14 medals in Rio, which would break the previous best of 13 in Seoul (1988) and London (2012), but could also be considered a conservative target.

Infrastrada Sports, who have predicted the overall medal table ahead of next year's Olympics, believe New Zealand will claim 22 medals (eight golds, six silvers and eight bronzes) to finish 11th overall.

Those golds are expected in kayaking (women's K1 200m and 500m), rugby sevens (men's and women's), sailing (men's 49er) and rowing (women's double sculls and lightweight double sculls, and men's pair).

The top three, according to Infrastrada, will be the United States (93 medals), China (87) and Russia (72), with Australia sixth on 39.

HPSNZ track their athletes against international rivals, and success a year out from an Olympics often translates to success at a Games.

"When you look at conversion from 2011 to 2012, we had a 56 per cent conversion from medals at world championships to medals at the Olympics," HPSNZ chief executive Alex Baumann said.

"We are on track for 14 medals [in Rio]. We are sitting on nine golds in Olympic disciplines based on world champions.

"2015 was quite outstanding. There are some very, very talented athletes in that list, and it doesn't include [two-time Olympic shot put champion] Val Adams and [former single sculls rowing world champion] Emma Twigg.

"The All Blacks were outstanding and if you take a look at non-Olympic sports like netball, rugby league and cricket, they also achieved great results. It's been a very pleasing year."

Baumann warned, however, that New Zealanders should expect a dip in sporting success at some stage in the future.

"We can't underestimate how difficult it is to maintain momentum. There will be a time when we plateau but I don't think we have reached our full potential."