All Blacks assistant coach Ian Foster with head coach Steve Hansen. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
COMMENT:
In November last year there was a genuine sense of the unknown about what the All Blacks coaching future would look like after the World Cup.
That uncertainty was being driven by the vast array of high quality candidates who were likely to be in the race.
It wasn't known then whether Steve Hansen would stay or move on. Joe Schmidt was trying to make his mind up whether to extend his contract with Ireland past 2019 or leave himself as a free agent to apply for the All Blacks job after the World Cup.
Warren Gatland, knowing he would be finishing with Wales at the tournament, said he would be coming home after and while he suggested he would most likely be looking for a Super Rugby coaching role, it was hard to believe a man of his standing and experience wouldn't apply for the All Blacks job.
Dave Rennie was seen as a probable candidate, so too Vern Cotter who would have a much stronger case than he did when he applied in 2011 as he has gained valuable international experience with Scotland since then.
And then of course there were the two local lads, current All Blacks assistant Ian Foster and Crusaders coach Scott Robertson.
Four months ago New Zealand Rugby could tell itself with some confidence that the All Blacks would be wading through a long list other nations could only dream of.
Four months ago NZR could tell itself it was right to believe that coaching the All Blacks is the most coveted job in rugby and that leaving the appointment process until after the World Cup was the right way to prove that.
But everything NZR believed to be true in November has collapsed and some new alarming truths are being revealed.
Most of the probable contenders from four months ago have given compelling reasons why they don't want to coach the All Blacks.
Hansen and Schmidt have said they need to put family first after years of not doing so and Rennie has extended his commitment to Glasgow.
If it is the most coveted job in the game then it is decidedly odd that so far not one candidate has definitively ruled themselves in – not even Foster, who by having been in the inner sanctum of the team since 2012 will be a hard to reject candidate on that fact alone.
Not one person, however, has made an unambiguous statement of intent, while three have definitely ruled themselves out and Robertson has talked down his immediate interest in the role and extended his contract at the Crusaders.
NZR should be more worried about this than they seemingly are because Hansen, Schmidt and Gatland are, on any and every measure, the three best international coaches in the business and two have categorically ruled themselves out of coaching the All Blacks in 2020 and the other is now the longest of long shots to even consider applying.
Gatland's position hasn't changed as such but he's now been firmly linked with England and if they do indeed knock on his door and ask him to replace Eddie Jones, it would be hard to imagine him saying no just in case the Chiefs come calling.
France aren't hiding that he's also their preferred candidate to take over after the World Cup and if Gatland ever was a realistic prospect to coach the All Blacks in 2020 he's not now.
So what NZR can't hide from is the near certainty that while the three top coaches in the world are all proud Kiwis and very much at the peak of their respective powers, not one of them will be at the helm of the All Blacks in 2020.
What also seems probable is that the eventual short-list when applications open later this year will comprise just two names – Foster and Cotter.
In 2011 it was an eerily similar scenario as Hansen, who just like Foster, had served two World Cup cycles as an assistant, was up against Cotter.
That proved to be something of a non-contest and despite the fact Cotter has subsequently gained test experience in the interim, he seems no more likely to beat Foster to the job than he was Hansen for the simple reason NZR's default mode is to go with who and what they know.
Should this play out as forecast it will require NZR to question whether coaching the All Blacks is as attractive as they think it is.
With the greatest respect to Foster and Cotter, who are both fine coaches, NZR couldn't surely feel comfortable, given the power and influence of New Zealand's coaching diaspora, if they end up running this particular two-horse race later this year.
To have so many outstanding New Zealand coaches and have so few even consider the job...that's a major fail.
Has the incredible success Hansen has enjoyed in the role made him in the minds of his peers an impossible act to follow?
Is the perceived pressure and scrutiny that comes with the role a major turn off to even the most experienced coaches who must wonder whether there is any joy to be found in coaching a team which is expected to win every game it plays?
But the more pertinent question for NZR to ask is whether their insistence on waiting until after the World Cup to appoint the next coach is the bigger issue.
The timing is based on what is proving to be a false assumption that the best Kiwi coaches, no matter where they are in the world, will put their careers on hold so they can drop everything to have a crack at being the next All Blacks coach.
Obviously, given the way things have panned out since November, that's no longer the case if it ever was and while it may dent a few egos in NZR headquarters, the time has come to realise that the need to pay mortgages and school fees speaks more powerfully to most coaches than the lure of the All Blacks.
England, Wales and Ireland have already announced their respective coaching succession plans and all three are going to the World Cup knowing who will be in charge in 2020, although England have cleverly made provision to adapt their thinking if things don't go well in Japan.
By waiting as NZR have done, the risks far outweigh the benefits as evidenced by the ever shrinking pool of available candidates.
Once Hansen confirmed his intention to stand down after the World Cup, there wasn't a valid reason why NZR couldn't immediately begin the process of replacing him and that they didn't may end up being a source of considerable regret.
The Indian Twenty20 league will resume on May 17.