Karaka Millions betting guide: Michael Guerin’s smart tips and challenges at Ellerslie

Legarto winning at Ellerslie’s comeback meeting on January 13. Photo / Trish Dunell

The biggest night in New Zealand racing has thrown up some smart bets and some tricky challenges for punters.

Here is a betting plan for the Ellerslie mega meeting but of course, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Race 1, 4.19pm: Best horse by a long way is Crocetti (1) but he hasn’t raced for 11 weeks. If he strolls to the lead and controls race he should win but rival jockey Michael McNab on Merchant Queen (5) is suggesting he might look to stay in front of him. That puts enough doubt in the mind to struggle with Crocetti’s $1.30 win price.

Suggested bet: Either fixed odds quinella 1-5 at $2.60, or Star Of Justice (4) top 4 at $1.90.

Race 2, 4.54pm: Maven Belle (1) is the best horse but wasn’t at her peak in the Railway last start or immediately after races like 1200m will be short enough. If the track is going to play fast and suit leaders then Imwonderfultonight has the perfect draw and jockey Joe Doyle says she is ready for a new career peak.

Suggested bet: Imwonderfulltonight (4) each way.

Race 3, 5.29pm: The best version of La Crique (1) would blow these away and she trialled like she might be getting back to that. But she lacks recent racing so any bad luck could expose her fitnessand rivals like Luberon, Fashion Shoot and the in-form Faraglioni, if the latter handles a firm track at the end of a hot day. Tempo could decide this race.

Suggested bet: Luberon (14) each way but you could also back La Crique (1) for cover.

Race 4, 6.04pm: The big three are Velocious (11), Bellatrix Star (10) and Cool N Fast (4) and it might come down to who of the three gets the best run. Velocious looks maybe the most natural two-year-old but is drawn outside the other pair while Bellatrix Star is a real pro, although would like a slightly wetter track to show her absolute best and slow the other two down. Cool N Fast is very talented and the addition of blinkers may rev him up, and he has Opie Bosson, who has won this 5 of the last 7 years.

Suggested bet: Have 70 per cent of your win bet on Velocious (11) to win and 30 per cent on Cool N Fast (4).

Race 5, 6.44pm: If Legarto (12) produces her best she should win, so will she? “Yes. She is right where she needs to be and I couldn’t be happier,” says trainer Ken Kelso. Then she wins but maybe the $1.50 win price is a bit tight unless you are taking a multi.

Suggested bet: Desert Lightning (2) is a group 1 winner who looks a great place bet at $3 and even a good fixed odds quinella with Legarto at $7.20.

Race 6, 7.24pm: Get ready for some girl power courtesy of Molly Bloom (10) and Orchestral (12) but the question is which one? If Orchestral jumps better than last start and stays handy or, even better, trails potential leader Pendragon you want to be on her. If she doesn’t and ges back on traffic then Molly might divebomb them, with Pendragon still hard to catch.

Suggested bet: Let’s go with the first scenario and back Orchestral to win.

TAB KARAKA MILLIONS

What: New Zealand’s richest race meeting.

Where: Ellerslie.

When: Today, first of six races at 4.19pm.

Highlights: $1.5million TAB Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old, $1million TAB KM Two-Year-Old, $1million Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic.

Place for a responsible punt: tab.co.nz

Watch: Trackside TV (Sky Ch62), exclusive Ellerslie coverage from 4pm on Sky Ch64.

Can I go? Not unless you already have a ticket, the meeting is a sell-out at 12,000 people.