Caleb Clarke's World Cup spot is up for debate. Photo / Photosport
Caleb Clarke's World Cup spot is up for debate. Photo / Photosport
OPINION
The drama hunters are out looking, desperate to find the shock selections that will be announced when the All Blacks pick their World Cup squad, but they are likely searching for something that isn’t there.
So too is there a bit of over dramatisation going on regarding the generallevel of nervousness pervading the All Blacks squad as they await news of who has and who hasn’t made the final cut.
The players were dutifully and respectfully doing their bit to play along with things after the test against the Wallabies in Dunedin, talking of how they will keep themselves busy and distracted waiting for the big reveal, but the majority of the squad know they are going to France.
To imagine otherwise suggests a total lack of faith in a selection team that have not put a foot wrong in 2023, having come into this season with a detailed and precise plan about who would play when and where.
Every move head coach Ian Foster has made this year has been highly considered and more than a few times he’s all but said he and his fellow selectors Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt had their 33-man World Cup squad just about settled before the All Blacks had played their first test.
And it’s a sign of Foster’s confidence in himself, his coaching team and his players, that he’s known for months now.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster. Photo / Photosport
That there will be a lack of drama today is something to celebrate, as it signals the clarity Foster has in how he wants his team to play and who can deliver it.
He was willing to cast his selection net far and wide in his first three years in charge, which was a strategy that at times looked more hopeful than anything else: the rugby equivalent of throwing the pasta at the wall and hoping it would stick. But if it appeared hopeful than rather than purposeful at the time, it has paid dividends, as it has given him certainty about who is good enough to play the game he wants and who is not.
Experimentation can be something to worry about if a coach is still doing it weeks out from the World Cup, but the All Blacks have come into 2023 with such a clear sense of their best team and such singularity of purpose as to suggest Foster has timed this perfectly.
Foster used the first three years of the World Cup cycle to kiss a lot of frogs, and the last one to work with only his Prince Charmings - those he believes are good enough to win the World Cup.
And because it’s taken so long to get to this point where Foster knows his best 23 and the handful of others who could slip into that match day squad if there are injuries or tactical variations to consider, it seems unlikely there is going to be much in the way of drama when the World Cup squad is unveiled.
The only uncertainties are around injuries – as in how serious are the knee problems that Braydon Ennor and Brodie Retallick picked up in Dunedin and how far recovered are Ethan Blackadder, Joe Moody and David Havili.
Braydon Ennor could be out of the World Cup after suffering an injury against the Wallabies. Photo / Photosport
The latter three, presumably, would have been in the Rugby Championship squad had they been fit, but the question now is whether, having not played any test rugby in 2023, can they really go to a World Cup?
As Foster said, the whole point of making 12 changes for the game in Dunedin was because he didn’t want a handful of players going to the World Cup having not played a meaningful test for nine weeks.
On that rationale, it will be hard to justify including the injured Crusaders trio, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.
Havili will be back in the mix if scans confirm Ennor’s injury is serious, and Blackadder in particular brings the destructive physicality that the All Blacks are in the market for and his versatility to play across the back row makes him a candidate to make the match-day 23.
Moody brings a ball-carrying element that Nepo Laulala doesn’t, but Moody’s lack of game time has to weigh heavily against him.
Of the incumbent 36, the only players with any need to feel nervous about the cull are Josh Lord, Luke Jacobson, Samipeni Finau, Dallas McLeod, Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa and Caleb Clarke.
Samipeni Finau made his debut in Dunedin. Photo / Getty Images
The squad does need a trim and it’s unlikely the All Blacks will take five locks – even accounting for Retallick’s injury - and it’s probably a choice between Finau and Jacobson to make up the loose forward contingent, although both could be cut to make way for Blackadder.
McLeod, as the fifth and least experienced midfielder, is likely to be cut and probably only one of Narawa, Clarke and Stevenson can be accommodated.
As Stevenson didn’t make the Rugby Championship initially and took a bit of time to find the pace of the game in Dunedin on debut, he presumably won’t be making the World Cup squad.
Narawa impressed on his debut in Argentina and hasn’t been seen since because of a back injury, while Clarke has offered energy and impact from the bench in recent weeks and he’s noticeably good at chasing kick-offs and winning the ball in the air.
It may be the selectors decide they have all the power they need in Leicester Fainga’anuku and cut Clarke, or take the big Blues wing on the basis he’s comfortable on both flanks and has a wide skill-set.
