Everyone seems to have caught the scent of vulnerability coming off the All Blacks.
There’s talk of the aura having died. Four losses in the first six games of a season will do that, especially when three were at home, consecutively, for the first time in history.
And thelegacy certainly starts to look wobbly when Argentina can win in Christchurch and when Japan can send the All Blacks scrambling all over the Olympic Stadium in Tokyo, clinging on to a game by something not even as robust as their fingernails.
So it’s no wonder that optimism in Wales has reached unknown levels this week.
They have beaten the All Blacks before of course, but it was so long ago that there is barely a soul still alive when it actually happened. Not one that can remember it at least.
Wales have dared to dream before, but maybe not like this: not with so much evidence pointing to this being an unusually vulnerable All Blacks team.
New Zealand have had the odd ropey patches before, but not one quite as illuminating as this. Not one that has exposed so many issues and Wales must know this is their best chance in an age to finally post that elusive win.
And yet for all that it is undeniable that the All Blacks of 2022 have looked beatable, dangerously human even, just where Wales will look to prise them open is difficult to see.
With Sam Whitelock back in the engine room, the lineout should return to being a weapon for the All Blacks.
HAMILTON, NEW ZEALAND - SEPTEMBER 03: Sam Whitelock of the All Blacks during The Rugby Championship match between the New Zealand All Blacks and Argentina Pumas at FMG Stadium Waikato on September 03, 2022 in Hamilton, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Their scrum hasn’t been shunted around by anyone this year and their rolling maul has become world-class in recent tests – as has their defence of the same mechanism.
Forget the slightly soft and erratic set-piece and collision work that was on show last week in Tokyo, that was mostly a different crew trying to piece themselves and a slightly mad gameplan together.
The story since August has been one of improvement and whatever Wales are thinking, they won’t be able to beat the All Blacks up.
That’s not a route to success as they will find that the All Blacks are no longer vulnerable to brute force. They don’t give into it the way they used to and the only window of opportunity for Wales, is to hope that they can engender muddy thinking in the execution of the All Blacks’ attack game.
The inability to use the ball smartly and effectively has been the All Blacks’ weak point in 2022.
Their attack game is where their vulnerability sits as it has been on and off all year, but the gamblers will be wondering whether they should bet on it being more on than off for the rest of this year, now that Ian Foster has at last found his starting backline.
It has taken the better part of three years, but Foster now has all the right players in the right places, and but for the exception of Will Jordan, who will reclaim the right wing spot once he returns to action next year, the backline in Cardiff is the backline we will see in France next year when the big games swing around.
Foster, who was perhaps a little reticent earlier in the year to see Jordie Barrett as a second-five, has been won over.
He’s also decided to commit to Richie Mo’unga, and give up with this flip-flopping at No 10.
Richie Mo'unga has signalled his desire to play overseas after the World Cup. Photo / Photosport
We won’t see Mo’unga at 10 one week, Beauden Barrett the next. Those days are over as it would appear that having decided Jordie Barrett is the No 12 that the team needs – a straight-running, big-tackling, tactical operator all rolled into one - Foster is equally sure that Beauden can be the fullback he needs.
The balance of the backline looks infinitely better being set up the way it now is.
There is size in the midfield, speed and power on the wings and two genuine play-makers in Beauden Barrett and Mo’unga, who slowly seem to have to grips with managing to play alongside each other without it being such a drama.
The All Blacks have been too inconsistent all year for anyone to be too confident about what we will see in Cardiff, but there is just a hint of possibility that Wales’ window of opportunity has closed.
The All Blacks are probably nowhere near as vulnerable now as they were earlier in the year.
