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Home / Sport

Goalmouth Scramble: The way too early ‘how-does-Argentina-and-Germany-defeats-affect-second-round-matchups’ equation

Cameron McMillan
By Cameron McMillan
Deputy Head of Sport·NZ Herald·
23 Nov, 2022 10:14 PM3 mins to read

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Not a great day for German football fans. Photo / AP

Not a great day for German football fans. Photo / AP

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NZME’s world-renowned football blog Goalmouth Scramble is back. Our rotating stable of football writers will offer daily hot takes on all the action from the World Cup in Qatar. Today, Cameron McMillan tries to work out the possible second round implications of Germany’s and Argentina’s early defeats.

Let’s just over-react for a second. Argentina and Germany, noted Qatar World Cup first game losers, could still top their groups. But what if they don’t?

What the opening defeat means for Argentina:

Anyone keen for another second round clash between Argentina and France?

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Argentina sit bottom of Group C and could obviously still finish top with wins over Mexico and Poland, the TAB has them as favourites to do so, but as it stands they’re also a decent chance to finish in second spot after the 2-1 upset to Saudi Arabia.

The runner up of Group C plays the top team of Group D in the second round - and France looked very slick against Australia yesterday while Denmark and Tunisia preferred to not score goals.

Surprisingly Argentina and France have met only three times at the World Cup but their last clash four years ago, also in the round of 16, was one of the great encounters with the eventual winners prevailing 4-3 in Kazan.

But one bumper round of 16 fixture means there has to also be a dud, and let’s just get it out there early and say Poland v Denmark at 4am on a Monday won’t drag too many people out of bed.

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Looking further down the elimination phase - the winner of France v Argentina could potentially play England in the quarter-finals!

What the opening defeat means for Germany:

The equation seems much harder for the four-time champions. Despite today’s loss Germany doesn’t need to beat Spain on Monday morning but they also kind of really need it. If they get a draw then their fate is out of their hands.

Japan should beat Costa Rica, based on what we saw in their 7-0 loss to Spain, which would put them on six points. So if Germany only manage a draw against Spain, they’d be sitting three points back and eight goals behind on goal difference.

If Germany finish second they will face the Winner of Group F which could be Belgium or Croatia. As it stands, we’re more likely to see Japan v Belgium which is another repeat of the round of 16 four years.

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