KEY POINTS:
When Roger Waters, David Gilmour and the rest of Pink Floyd wrote one of the great rock songs, they could hardly have foreseen how prophetic their lyrics were for the English Premier League.
So far, the passage of leading football clubs from British owners to international investors looking
for comparatively quick bucks has seen Chelsea, Manchester United, Portsmouth, Aston Villa and West Ham bought by foreign money men - a trend that worries the establishment, with Liverpool seemingly next to go.
Ironically, the voice raised loudest belongs to another foreigner, Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger. "At the moment the point is the love of the game," he said.
"Once it becomes investment only, then you have ingredients that are not necessarily for the love of the game, or the good of the game. It looks as if we have gone from one period to a new one with more people who look at it as an investment - where they want to be paid back quickly."
The days of Englishmen buying clubs for the love of the game has gone and Wenger worries about the future. "What was traditionally true in England is that the people who were the owners were the supporters.
"The biggest example was at Blackburn where a guy called Jack Walker, who was a passionate supporter of the club, was in charge."
Walker ploughed the wealth he made from the steel industry into Rovers and they won the Premier League title in 1995. The Blackburn-born magnate died aged 71 in 2000.
"What happened, chronologically, was he was a supporter, he became wealthy and he fulfilled his dream by buying the club of his dreams," said Wenger. "But that looks to be a period of the past. It was really reassuring for the fans because it looked as if the heart of the owner was like their heart. It looks like that period has gone because the implication of the financial investment is too high. This tradition has gone."
"We are one of the biggest clubs left with this tradition. Liverpool, until now, were another."
The Merseysiders look set to be the next Premier League club taken over by foreign backers, with Dubai International Capital (DIC) in talks about investing what British newspapers have said could be up to £450 million (NZ$1.3 billion).
Wenger fears the Premier League could lose its competitive streak if too many teams take up the lead set by champions Chelsea, owned by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.
"What is dangerous for us, is once the financial potential of the club goes above their natural resources Arsenal will be in trouble," Wenger added.
"At the moment, we can do it because only Chelsea have those resources. But once three or four have that, are you dead?
"If today you go into football and think 'I have £100 million available and could put that into Arsenal Football Club to make £200 million', it looks very dangerous - both for football and for the club.
"To find people who put £100, £200 or £800 million into a club and are prepared to lose their money, you must be lucky."
So why is 2006-2007 proving so attractive to buyers of football clubs?
The new domestic TV deals, with Sky and Setanta, worth £1.7bn between 2007 and 2010, are major factors, but so is the backdrop of financial stability, wage inflation control ("towards a more sensible 50 to 60 per cent of turnover") and consistency as a world brand.
Investment bank chairman Keith Harris - who brokered the sales of Chelsea, Villa and West Ham - cites an upsurge in hugely wealthy individuals. Houses and yachts were once sought, now football clubs are.The extra cash from the new TV and sponsorship deals will be huge. The total prize pot now is £1.6bn over three years, or £25m per club each season on average, ranging from £17m (lowest) to more than £30m (league winners). From next year, that will jump to £40m per club on average. Even the least successful team will get an extra £8m, while the top clubs will earn £20m more each year.
"Clearly investors are attracted to the revenue streams, but how we are run is crucial," said Dan Johnson of the Premier League. "No one or two teams hog the broadcasting revenue as they do in Spain or Italy. There's a strong base to build from, and rewards for success."
Professor Chris Brady, the dean of the Business School at Bournemouth University, specialises in football finance and has researched sports management on both sides of the Atlantic. He says investors have realised there are real opportunities.
"Look at the recent buyers. Randy Lerner [US billionaire who bought Villa], the Glazers [Americans who bought United], Eggert Magnusson [the Icelander who bought West Ham]. These are people with a background in sports business. They get it.
"Think of Malcolm Glazer's logic in buying Manchester United: - 'I own an NFL franchise, the Bucs, that frankly, nobody has heard of, and I make more money from them than from a genuine world brand like Manchester United do. So I will have a piece of that'."
"There are others out there," says Brady. "Three or four NFL magnates have been sniffing around in England.
"The attraction is little debt, relatively, guaranteed revenue streams, and the new TV deal."
But why the Premier League over other countries? "Because it's well run, it's not so over-reliant on TV like Germany, or on commercial income like in Italy," says Brady. "It's easier to buy into places where you can just take out one or two big shareholders. The growing attraction for Americans is opportunities you can't have in the NFL, where you're only allowed to do the sport business. For football, England against other countries is just a better business deal all round."
So who's in the market? American billionaires with sports backgrounds like George Gillett (former Harlem Globetrotters and Miami Dolphins owner, current owner of the National Hockey League's Montreal Canadiens, wanted Liverpool), and the Kraft family (NFL and Major League Soccer franchises); Robert Earl (British-born American resident of Planet Hollywood fame who took a stake in Everton last month); and an assortment of oligarchs (Russia's Oleg Deripaska, worth £4bn, is apparently keen), Middle-East oil men and East Asian tycoons.
Reading have reportedly talked with a South Korean group. When buying a club, Brady says 'brand equity' is vital, with Manchester United having the most truly global appeal. Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea have good brand value. Next come Newcastle ("ripe for takeover due to a combination of crap management, large and loyal support, guaranteed revenue streams and brand possibilities"), Tottenham and Everton. Harris and Brady agree that Blackburn, Wigan, Bolton and Middlesbrough have little brand appeal, or any appeal to major speculators.
"There's also a market outside the Premiership," says Harris, who worked on takeovers at Southampton and Cardiff.. And does he think there will be more deals? Yes. Because he's already working on them.
- INDEPENDENT
