Richard Boock: South Africa's moment may have arrived

It's doubtful that Herschelle Gibbs will be requiring any special pep talks when South Africa begin their campaign to win an elusive World Cup title on Sunday night.

The hosts of the eighth cup play the West Indies in the opener at Cape Town, amid high expectations they will finally go where no other South African side have gone before - to the winner's podium.

They have been hopeful in the past, of course, only to be knocked out by a bizarre recalculation in 1992, by Brian Lara in 1996, and by an agonising tie against Australia in the 1999 tournament semifinal.

The first 1999 match against Australia will not be fondly remembered by Gibbs, who in his haste to celebrate a crucial catch off the bat of dangerman Steve Waugh, squandered the chance and allowed his arch-rivals to mount a last, desperate counter-attack.

Popular opinion has it that Waugh sledged Gibbs at the time, saying "you just dropped the World Cup, Herschelle," although the Australians insist it is a myth, invented long after the incident occurred.

Whatever was said, Waugh went on to an unbeaten century, and Australia then tied with South Africa a few days later off the last ball, to qualify for the final by virtue of their higher Super Six ranking.

This time around, there is a feeling that South Africa's moment has arrived. They are at home and in compelling form.

A sobering thought for any team hoping to oust them is that South Africa have so far played 114 one-day internationals at home and have won 80 of them.

In their entire ODI history, they have only lost three series at home, one against the West Indies not long after readmission, and twice against Australia.

South African skipper Shaun Pollock conceded it was strange to be playing a World Cup at home, because it meant a slightly more low-key build-up for his players.

"Everyone who sees us is passing on his best wishes for the World Cup and saying that we must keep it here," he said. "For us - this is my third tournament - it probably feels different to the other two because we haven't gone anywhere.



"But I can assure you that once we see a couple of foreign faces around and we walk out in that opening ceremony and see all the class players, we're going to realise we're in a special tournament."

Pollock stressed that the initial focus would be squarely on the pool games, particularly the opener against the West Indies.

Australia, the South Africans' main threat, would come later.

"We are not worrying about Australia right now. We've got six pool games to worry about first, then we'll be focusing on the Super Six - where we're bound to meet them."

In form and with all their best players available, Australia would probably be favoured in a one-off sudden-death match against the hosts, but the chances of that happening are become less likely - particularly in regard to injury.

Bowlers Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Shane Warne are recovering, all-rounder Shane Watson was forced to withdraw, and key batsman Michael Bevan is racing the clock to regain his fitness following a torn adductor muscle.

Only the West Indies, victorious in the first two cups of 1975 and 1979, have managed to defend their title, and Australian coach John Buchanan said there was nothing to suggest that the 1999 success was still relevant today.

"We won the World Cup with a different team four years ago and the make-up of this team is significantly different."



Just as in 1999, South Africa and Australia loom as the teams most likely to go all the way, although they are by no means the only contenders and will remain vulnerable to upsets.

Pakistan, in particular, are capable of springing a surprise.

They have a classy line-up including bowlers of the calibre of Wasim Akram, Shoaib Akhtar and Saqlain Mushtaq, all-rounders such as Abdur Razzaq, and batsmen like Saeed Anwar, Inzamam-ul-Haq, Yousuf Youhana and Younis Khan.

India are another side who could beat anyone on their day, but as we saw in New Zealand last month, their bowling attack is probably not strong enough to contain the opposition, even though their batsmen are world-class.

It's a similar situation with Sri Lanka, who have the batting power to make life difficult for New Zealand at Bloemfontein on Monday night, given the fireworks already seen this summer from Aravinda de Silva and Sanath Jayasuriya.

But the difference with Sri Lanka is that they have Muttiah Muralitharan in their bowling attack, and if the world-class off-spinner fires, anything could happen.

The West Indians are possibly the biggest unknown, considering their form over the past five years, but they seem to be shaking off their lethargy and making progress.

Carl Hooper's side beat India on the sub-continent before Christmas and have been buoyed by the return of Lara, who joins his skipper and Shivnarine Chanderpaul as the senior batsmen in the side.

As for England, they have a useful batting line-up, particularly at the top of the order.

The quiet effectiveness of Marcus Trescothick, unorthodoxy of Nick Knight and majesty of Michael Vaughan will serve them well.

The problem again, is that their bowling looks suspect and inexperienced.

They have never won the trophy, despite acting as hosts several times.

Where New Zealand might stand in all this is anyone's guess.

Stephen Fleming's side were impressive against India at home, but lost overseas in Pakistan and the West Indies, as well as at the ICC Knockout Trophy in Sri Lanka.

They will be disciplined, organised and well-prepared.

Whether they have the class to go all the way is another question.

TIPS FOR THE CUP


Richard Boock's predictions

Winners: South Africa.

Runners-up: Australia.

Losing semifinalists: Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Top wicket-takers: Shaun Pollock (South Africa) and Glenn McGrath (Australia).

Top run-scorers: Adam Gilchrist (Australia) and Herschelle Gibbs (South Africa).

Best fieldsmen: Lou Vincent (New Zealand) and Jonty Rhodes (South Africa).

Best allrounders: Abdur Razzaq (Pakistan) and Jacques Kallis (South Africa).

Fastest 50s: Sanath Jayasuriya (Sri Lanka) and Gilchrist.

Most challenging assignment: New Zealand.

Biggest surprise: Sri Lanka.

Imponderables: How will Shane Warne fare against the Indian batsmen?

Will Lance "Zulu" Klusener ever rediscover his x-factor? What odds on Pakistan being upset by a minnow ... again?

Who will find the first loophole in the format rules?