Cricket: Uncertainty rules supreme in Group B

3.45pm

JOHANNESBURG - Kenya's shock win over Sri Lanka has set the scene for a thrilling end to the preliminary phase of the World Cup, with five of seven Group B teams still in contention.

With this in mind New Zealand have gone for all-out attack in tonight's (9pm NZ time) World Cup cricket match against Bangladesh here, calling up paceman Kyle Mills and dropping batsman Lou Vincent.

Just four points separate Kenya, Sri Lanka, West Indies, New Zealand and South Africa, with two matches each left to play and eight points available for each team.

The pool is so tight that each of the five teams could potentially win the group - or miss out altogether. Only three teams go through to the next round.

The permutations are endless. Teams can go through by winning one of their two remaining matches but can also miss out even if they win both if other results go against them.

Bizarrely, it is even possible that a team could finish equal first on points and still miss out on a place in the Super Six if, as is possible, four teams finish level on points.

It is also possible that a team could finish third but carry more points through to the next stage than teams finishing ahead of them. Teams keep four points for wins over fellow-qualifiers and one point for wins over eliminated teams.

The only thing that seems certain is that run-rates will probably be needed to split the teams.

"We got the calculators out after the Kenya game but it's still too early to work out yet," New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming said.

"There's a lot to go yet and I think there might be a few more twists to come."

While things have mostly gone according to script in the other half of the draw, Group B - supposedly the easier pool - has been full of surprises from the moment West Indies upset South Africa in the first game of the tournament.

South Africa, one of the cup favourites, seemed to be out of the running when they lost a second match to New Zealand.

But West Indies then lost two certain points when their match against Bangladesh was rained off, while the New Zealanders gave up four points by forfeiting their match in Kenya because of security concerns.

South Africa's fate is now in their own hands again but they still need to win their final two matches against Canada and Sri Lanka to make the next round.

Sri Lanka were cruising towards the Super Sixes before their shock loss to Kenya on Monday turned the group upside down.

They must win one of their remaining two games - against West Indies and South Africa.

Kenya were never considered as contenders for the next stage but find themselves leading the group after the forfeit-victory over New Zealand and wins over Sri Lanka and Canada. They have Bangladesh and West Indies to play.

West Indies's moment of truth comes against Sri Lanka in Cape Town on Saturday. A win and they will probably top the group. A defeat and they they will almost certainly miss out.

New Zealand have only lost one match, to Sri Lanka, but their refusal to fly to Kenya could prove dear.

They have two 'easy' games against Bangladesh (tonight 9pm NZT) and Canada but could still miss out with two wins.

"Like the other teams, all we can really do is look after our games," Fleming said.

"We have to win them and win them well to boost our run-rates but, apart from that, we're just passengers."

Besides dropping Vincent, the NZ selectors have been forced to make another change. New Zealand's top one-day international runscorer Nathan Astle ,whose hernia is causing concern, is out meaning Mathew Sinclair will bat at No 3 and Craig McMillan will again open with captain Stephen Fleming.

The unlucky ones for a match New Zealand are expected to win easily are Vincent, Chris Harris and Daryl Tuffey.

For Mills and Sinclair it will be their first World Cup appearances and chairman of selectors Sir Richard Hadlee said it was a clear case of wanting to bombard the winless Bangladeshis from all sides.

"We want an extra pace bowler, we like the way Kyle swings the ball and he'll open the bowling with Shane Bond," said Hadlee, who is on tour with the team in South Africa.

"We feel their batsmen have been very suspect against quick bowling and maybe they'll offer some chances behind the wicket. Going in with just Bond, Oram and Adams, we feel we may have been underdone with firepower."

In the last meeting between the two sides at the Champions Trophy in Sri Lanka in September, Bond took four for 21 off five overs while Mills, Oram and Daniel Vettori took two wickets apiece as Bangladesh were bowled out for 77.

Hadlee said Astle's condition was causing concern. Astle will probably require two operations after the tournament, one on his hernia and the other on his troublesome left knee which is afflicted by tendinitis.

"I've been given advice which suggests he's only got so much game time left in him before he blows out. If we keep pushing him every game we're going to get less at the end," Hadlee said.

Fleming likened the difficult Astle situation to drinking from a glass of water.

"We're taking sips from it whenever he plays. It's how many sips and when we want to take a drink," Fleming said.

"We think we've got x amount of games left in him, we've got to work out when we can use him. The other thing is, we're not through to the Super Six, so if we don't play him in these games you've got half a glass of water left."

Vincent has also paid the price for two failures at the tournament so far -- scoring one against Sri Lanka and nine against the West Indies. He was also usurped as wicketkeeper after the Sri Lanka game by Brendon McCullum who has done a solid job.

"Lou's had two misses and we've been pretty hard on players who have had misses," Hadlee said.

The New Zealanders will be anxiously throwing open their curtains on match morning to check the weather, although forecasts suggested a fine 30degC day with scattered cloud.

A washed out match at De Beers Diamond Oval could end New Zealand's World Cup hopes, as they need to win handsomely here and against Canada in Benoni on Monday and hope other results go their way.

Fleming questioned there being no reserve days for pool matches. It has already affected the West Indies, whose match against Bangladesh in Benoni was washed out and they collected just two points instead of four.

"In hindsight I would have liked to have seen reserve days because that could have a huge bearing on the World Cup. I'm sure the organisers don't want that.

"The logistics of that I'm not sure about, but that will certainly have an effect as the West Indies might end up rueing."

New Zealand are likely to want to bowl first and get the match over quickly to boost their net run rate.

Teams:

New Zealand: Stephen Fleming (captain), Craig McMillan, Mathew Sinclair, Scott Styris, Chris Cairns, Brendon McCullum, Jacob Oram, Kyle Mills, Daniel Vettori, Andre Adams, Shane Bond.

Bangladesh (from): Khaled Mashud (captain), Mohammad Al Sahariar, Alok Kapali, Habibul Bashar, Hannan Sarker, Ehsanul Haque, Sanwar Hossain, Khaled Mahmud, Manjurul Islam, Mashrafe Mortzaza, Mohammad Ashraful, Mohammad Rafique, Talha Jubair, Tapash Baisya.

Umpires: David Shepherd (England), Darrell Hair (Australia). Third umpire: Brian Jerling (South Africa).

- REUTERS, NZPA

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