Melbourne medal count expected to top 46

New Zealand athletes have been told to bring back 46 medals from the Commonwealth Games in Melbourne.

With 94 days left until the opening ceremony, Sparc, the principal investor in Commonwealth and Olympic Games sports, released the figure to the Herald on Sunday, with a breakdown of the medal haul expected in each of the 17 sports represented.

Shooting is expected to reap the most rewards with 12, followed by cycling (6), swimming (5) and athletics (5).

Trap shooting coach Gavin Paton said the figure "looks about right".

Sparc chief executive Nick Hill said 46 would represent a step forward from the Manchester haul of 45 as some medals gained there were not available this time.

He said 50 medals would be a "significant" step forward and there was a degree of confidence the half century could be reached for the first time since the 1990 Auckland games.

However, he warned anything less than 40 medals "would mean there would have to be some serious questions asked about how well our high performance systems are working and whether we need to make radical changes".

The figure was calculated by Sparc's high performance chief Marty Toomey, in consultation with Dave Currie, chef de mission of the New Zealand Commonwealth and Olympic games teams.

The number is taken from performances over the past two years that rank an athlete or team in the top three of the Commonwealth. Sparc has identified 55 athletes or teams in this category and has multiplied that by a 70-80 per cent conversion rate to come up with 45.

While weightlifting does not come under Sparc's investment umbrella and therefore is not subject to its targets, there is an expectation the sport will pick up a medal, hence the overall target being 46.

Manchester was a record offshore Commonwealth Games medal haul, surpassing the 42 achieved at Victoria, Canada, in 1994.

At Auckland in 1990, New Zealand won 58 medals and its 17 golds was six better than those achieved at Manchester.

Sparc is in the process of reviewing its high performance systems and Melbourne will provide many of the answers as to whether it's heading in the right direction.

If the Games team flops and comes home with less than 40 medals, an overhaul of the systems will be on the cards.

"What would happen is [we] would look at ... factors that affected certain performances - things that were outside of people's control - and decide whether it was because of those or whether it was systemic," Hill said.

"If it was systemic, we'd have to work out what we'd have to do."

Sparc's spend on high performance programmes this year is$30 million, compared to $10 million in the last year of the old Sports Foundation days.

The sportspeople spoken to by the Herald on Sunday said the assessment of their sports was fair.

BikeNZ high performance manager Michael Flynn hoped to better the six medals assigned to cycling.

Flynn said the initial breakdown of their six medals would point to one in mountain biking, two on the road and three on the track, but he was hopeful they could pinch an extra medal on both the mountain and the track.

Sparc's projections show movement in the sports expected to contribute to the New Zealand medal tally. Shooting is being asked to double the six medals - one gold, one silver and four bronze - won at Manchester in 2002. On the other hand, table tennis brought home four medals - one gold, one silver and two bronze - but is not included in the medal tally expectations for 2006.

Cycling, bowls and athletics all won four medals each in Manchester and cycling is being asked to improve that to six next year, athletics to five while bowls remains the same. The other big winner from 2002 was weightlifting which saw Nigel Avery, Olivia Baker and Terry Hughes bag eight medals between them. In Melbourne, only one medal is forecast.

Swimming is the other big improver from 2002 - two medals at Manchester compared to the five expected in Melbourne.

Earlier this year Sparc released a Statement of Intent which listed 40 as a realistic medal haul. This has been significantly lifted in the wake of impressive performances in the past year.

Sparc has not distinguished between the colour of the medals.

"In terms of forecasting, it's hard enough working this out, without sticking a colour on," Hill said.

There is debate about whether Sparc should identify medal targets before the Games in light of pressure it puts on athletes, but Hill dismisses this. "There's a debate, yes, but where we stand is that the reason the Government puts money into high performance sport is to win.

"We need to be prepared to say what's good and what is not.

"I think it's part of being a top sportsperson, isn't it? Part of theanswer lies in the way the team itself is developed and operates."

Currie said he was happy to take on that responsibility, but was focused less on medal counts.

"My job is to give them the potential to do their very best. If their best is not good enough, there's not a lot more you can do. My role is to provide a safe, stress-free, inspirational environment."

Currie said he had seen athletes buckle under the weight of expectation before, but believed the Athens Olympics was a good example of how a good team environment helped the conversion rate. Of the five world champions that went to Athens - GregHenderson, Sarah Ulmer, the Evers-Swindell twins, Ben Fouhy and Bevan Docherty - only Henderson, fourth in the ultra-competitive cycling points race, came away with less than a silver medal.

While it would be nice to have all 55 teams and athletes ranked in the Commonwealth top three in each discipline medal, Sparc accepts it will not work out for everyone on the day.

The 70-80 per cent conversion rate also takes into account that in sports such as swimming - where New Zealand has 16 athletes ranked in the top three but is only expected to win five medals - strong nations such as Australia and Canada will be allowed more than the two athletes per discipline that were allowed at the world champs.

"Australia is a swimming superpower so it does reflect a significant change," Swimming New Zealand chief executive Paul Veric said.

He said Sparc had invested in swimming through to Beijing and had marked targets for all the pinnacle events, including the Commonwealths, through to 2008. Five medals would be a significant improvement on the three achieved in 2002.

Medal expectations for Melbourne:

Shooting 12
Cycling 6
Swimming 5
Athletics 5
Bowls 4
Badminton 2
Basketball 2
Hockey 2
Squash 2
Netball 1
Rugby sevens 1
Triathlon 1
Boxing 1
Synchronised 1
Weightlifting 1
TOTAL: 46

- HERALD ON SUNDAY