“I have to try to lead and stay there because if I hand the lead to her [Aardie’s Express], I am conceding the race,” says Butt.
“My mare can go 2:38 for 2:37 in front so Aardie’s Express will need to be good to sit parked outside her and beat her at that speed.”
Butt realises that if he flies early on Manhattan he could open a gap that would allow Zachary Butcher driving Aardie’s Express to get on his back and get the seemingly perfect trail.
“I know that could happen but I’d rather have her trailing me than be sitting in the trail behind her because she would have too much speed for us to catch her.”
Manhattan against the markers will take some catching but the best version of Aardie’s Express should be too quick for her unless she has to sit parked throughout.
If Butt’s early predictions don’t pan out and Aardie’s Express is able to wrest the lead, she looks a good thing.
One group watching that with interest will be the TAB bookies who generously opened Aardie’s Express at $2.20 and she was quickly backed into $1.65 on Tuesday and it wouldn’t surprise to see her start even shorter.
There is plenty of depth to the race though, with Lady of the Light in superb form but cruelly treated in the draw (barrier 8) while Allamericanlover is the defending champion but will need a heap of early pressure to undo the favourites if she is to successfully swoop in the second half of the race.
While Butt intends leading in the Queen of Hearts, he will be the hunter in the $50,000 Thames Members Trot tonight with Resolve starting off a 20m handicap.
The Canterbury mare has had a hugely productive month at Addington including finishing third in the Dominion and was fourth in the Group 1 NZ Trotting Free-For-All just five days ago.
Her biggest concern tonight is distance as she would look a good thing over 2700m but tonight’s main trot is only 2200m and if her rivals decide to make life hard for her she could be chasing all race.
“It won’t be easy, it never is at Alexandra Park off a handicap over the short trip,” admits Butt. “So she will need some luck and it would be nice if she could begin fast and put a few behind her in the small field.”
One of Butt’s most interesting entries tonight is young trotter Bet ‘N’ Win (R3, No 6) who was unlucky not to get a start in Sunday’s NZ Derby.
He has some learning to do and will be a better horse with an extra 20kg of muscle on him in a year but he can really trot and his manners and inexperience right-handed may be a more difficult challenge than any of his rivals tonight.
“It can be a tough track first time for a young horse but he is talented and if I can ease him around the bends I think he can still win as he has high speed.”
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.