Speed is king.
It has become obvious that Team New Zealand have the faster boat in this America's Cup and, when behind, can remain in striking distance of Luna Rossa.
Luna Rossa have led in the last three races but the Kiwis were able to hang in there and pounce when an opportunity arose.
In contrast, once Team NZ are in front they can drop Luna Rossa very quickly.
One more win gives Team New Zealand the America's Cup victory so what can the Italians do to overcome this speed disadvantage and stay in the hunt?
For Luna Rossa to win a race they have to sail perfectly, which is very difficult to do in sailboat racing. Maybe something like a wrong sail choice on Te Rehutai in a crossover wind situation would help.
But I guess Team NZ can take a conservative approach whereas Luna Rossa have to be aggressive and can't make a mistake.
The weather prediction models suggest the wind will shift around to the east overnight, and be east or north-east by race time. The prediction is for 10-15 knots of wind.
This means the racecourse decision by regatta director Iain Murray will play a big part.
He could please the New Zealand public and sail Course C or D. Or he could play a conservative game and go to Course E further out where there will be a steadier breeze.
I think the inner harbour favours Luna Rossa, because the conditions are more random.
And it would be great for the racing to finish in front of a crowd at North Head, Bastion Point and Tamaki Drive.
So yes, I would love to see them sail there, but the wind has to be right.
In summary, momentum is clearly on New Zealand's side. They have won the last four races. Slowly, the Italians must be getting deflated.
This is a very different look to San Francisco, where New Zealand fell to the famous Oracle Team USA comeback. Team NZ's boat is faster, the Italian boat is maxed out.
Then again, this is yacht racing where you are playing with Mother Nature. The outcome is far from a done deal.
If Luna Rossa can cut out the big mistakes, who knows?
Heading into the Cup racing?
• Give yourself plenty of time and think about catching a ferry, train or bus to watch the Cup.
• Make sure your AT HOP card is in your pocket. It's the best way to ride.
• Don't forget to scan QR codes with the NZ COVID Tracer app when on public transport and entering the America's Cup Village.
• For more ways to enjoy race day, visit at.govt.nz/americascup.