NIWA meteorologist Chris Brandolino reveals what weather is in store across Aotearoa this Christmas, plus what’s ahead for the rest of summer. Video / NZ Herald / NIWA
It’s beginning to look a lot like barbecue weather for Christmas Day. Jamie Morton asked three forecasters for their outlooks for Sunday.
Peter Little, MetService
MetService meteorologist Peter Little is forecasting fine conditions for much of the country on Christmas Day – but with some bumpy weather to get throughfirst.
“The current weather situation is changing only very slowly, with the atmosphere remaining unstable this week,” he said.
“Daytime heating and wind convergence is again expected to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings.”
The potential for thunderstorms widened to southern parts of the North Island and inland South Island tomorrow, with heavy rain and hail likely to accompany them.
Fortunately, as we moved closer to Christmas Day, the picture became more stable.
“The risk of thunderstorms diminishes as we hit Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day,” he said.
“Although it does look like daytime heat showers will pop up in some places, they won’t be as heavy as what we get with thunderstorms.”
Because there was little wind across much of the country, coastal spots would be seeing more sea breezes.
“Where those sea breezes converge, which is generally on land, that’s where we’ll see the showers pop up,” he said.
“The risk of those showers is mainly going to be inland, so many coastal areas are looking like they’re going to have a pretty fine day on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, with maybe just a chance of a shower.”
MetService was today forecasting mostly fine weather in Auckland on Sunday with a high of 25C; mainly fine weather in Hamilton with a chance of a shower (26C); and partly cloudy conditions in Tauranga with northwesterlies (25C).
Further south, Wellington was forecast to get clear skies (22C); morning cloud over Christchurch was expected to clear by afternoon (23C); while in Dunedin, there’d be partly cloudy weather and northeasterlies, with a high of 22C.
“So, while the East Coast and the South Island have suffered some cool days so far this week, it looks like they’re bouncing up into the early 20s by Christmas Day.”
Asked if there were any lurking weather grinches to spoil the optimistic forecast, Little flagged a “hint” of low pressure to the north of the country on Boxing Day – but this was likely to be blocked by our building high.
“There’s a small chance there could be something affecting the very Far North on Boxing Day, but at this stage that seems unlikely,” he said.
“Certainly, we’ll be keeping an eye on it for people.”
“Our forecast for Christmas Day still looks mostly dry - but we definitely have some big afternoon downpours in the mix, and also some light morning showers,” Weatherwatch head forecaster Phillip Duncan said.
On the whole, Duncan said Christmas Day was likely to be “fairly calm”, with a light easterly flow in northern New Zealand and a light westerly in southern regions, and settled elsewhere with daytime sea breezes.
“There will be a few morning drizzle patches and showers in both islands, especially coastal areas,” he said.
“As the day wears on the clouds will break and showers will be pushed inland where they will then build up and turn heavy and maybe thundery.”
This was most likely inland to the east of both islands, especially around the ranges.
“These downpours ease and clear in the evening and can more than triple your forecast rainfall total if one hits you.”
He said temperatures would be somewhat flat in eastern areas due to the breeze and cloud.
Weatherwatch’s forecast highs for Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Napier and Gisborne ranged from 19C to 23C.
“For those west of the ranges, it will be hotter: Queenstown 25C, Palmerston North 24C, Hamilton 27C, Auckland 26C, Tauranga: 25.”
Waikato looked to be the warmest spot in the country, with some spots potentially seeing maximums close to 30C.
Coastal Otago, meanwhile, could see the coolest weather, with the mercury perhaps rising as high as 19C.
“Boxing Day looks even drier and hotter nationwide as high pressure dominates and those daily afternoon downpours finally take a break after a week of forming.”
Niwa Weather’s lead forecaster Chris Brandolino said Sunday’s forecast was currently looking “pretty darn good” over most of New Zealand.
“A lot of people living north of Hamilton will find largely dry weather.”
Elsewhere, inland centres like Tongariro National Park, Masterton and Palmerston North faced the prospect of “hit or miss showers, and maybe even a thundery one.
“For the South Island, it’s kind of the same theme, with Gore, north to inland Otago and inland Canterbury, all the way up to Marlborough... these places might get a largely pleasant morning, then there’ll be a period in the afternoon where they may get showers.”
Like Little, Brandolino said sea breezes would probably act as the trigger for showers in these central spots away from the water.
“As for the greatest odds for straight-up dry weather, you’re looking at northern Waikato and a good chunk of the Bay of Plenty.”
Overall, he gave New Zealand’s forecast for Christmas Day a B+ grade.
“We’re still looking at a ridge building up from the west and then taking up residence over a good chunk of the country.”
Niwa Weather’s forecast highs for the main centres on Sunday were 24C for Auckland, 25C for Hamilton, 24C for Tauranga, 23C for Taupo, 23C for Gisborne, 22C for Napier and Hastings, 22C for New Plymouth, 23C for Palmerston North, and 22C for Wellington.
South Island centres were forecast to hit 24C in Blenheim, 21C in Nelson, 22C in Christchurch, 20C in Timaru, 19C in Dunedin, 23C in Queenstown and 22C in Invercargill.
