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Opinion
Home / New Zealand

Will housing and infrastructure keep pace with our ageing population? – Aaron Smail

Opinion by
Aaron Smail
NZ Herald·
13 Oct, 2025 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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With nearly one in four New Zealanders projected to be over 65 by 2048, planning for age-appropriate housing is more urgent than ever. Photo / 123rf

With nearly one in four New Zealanders projected to be over 65 by 2048, planning for age-appropriate housing is more urgent than ever. Photo / 123rf

THE FACTS

  • By 2048, nearly one in four will be aged 65 or older, necessitating housing and service planning.
  • The demand for age-appropriate housing is growing, with 12% of over-65s considering retirement villages.
  • Building for older people frees up homes for families and supports community and employment growth.

By 2048, Stats NZ projects that nearly one in four New Zealanders will be aged 65 or older.

With today’s figure still below one in five, this significant change is fast approaching and it must be front of mind as we plan the country’s housing, services, and communities.

Across the motu (nation), we are seeing both general population growth and a demographic shift, with fast-growing areas from Auckland and Waikato to Bay of Plenty and Canterbury.

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We need to rethink how we build today to meet the challenges these developments will bring and to support a smooth transition for people moving to and between different housing types. Many older people in New Zealand currently live in large family homes that are costly to maintain, difficult to navigate and far larger than they need, but alternatives remain limited.

The demand for more age-appropriate housing is evident. Research from Village Guide shows that 12% of New Zealanders aged 65 and over are considering a move to a retirement village within the next five years, driven by the need for easier living, stronger community connections and access to care.

When older residents find suitable housing, often by settling into a retirement village, the benefits flow through the property market and positively impact the wider community. A 300-unit retirement village can release the same number of family homes back into the market, freeing the equivalent of 15-18ha of suburban housing, which then becomes available to first-home buyers and families.

Across the country, the groundwork for this housing realignment to support the needs of an ageing population is already in train. Growth is inevitable, but the question is whether our housing and infrastructure will keep pace.

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As one example, Canterbury’s population increased by 8.6% between the 2018 and 2023 Censuses. In Selwyn, the population aged 75 and over is projected to double in the next decade, while Waimakariri’s will grow by nearly 50%. Canterbury has been identified as a region where strong growth is projected to continue and a pipeline of age-appropriate housing and care is being developed to meet that demand.

Canterbury’s early adoption of retirement living combined with a competitive and capable construction sector has created a strong pipeline of growth. Demand is widespread across the region and not just limited to urban areas. Rolleston is among New Zealand’s fastest-growing towns, attracting families whose retired parents often follow, and Waimakariri is drawing people leaving farms or larger rural properties to a settled retirement.

Decisions to move are often triggered by lifestyle factors as much as necessity. We see some residents move after a health event, while others decide to make the change when maintaining a large home becomes too much.

Many seek low-maintenance housing, shared amenities and daily social interaction that helps combat loneliness.

Expectations for retirement living have also evolved, with today’s retirees seeking high-quality design, sustainable features and amenities that support an active lifestyle.

New developments are reflecting these trends with larger, more adaptable homes and a wider range of shared spaces. And with the continuum of care modern villages offer, from independent villas and serviced apartments to specialist dementia facilities, residents can remain in their community as needs change.

Delivering this level of quality and care relies on more than just good design and planning, it depends on the people who keep these communities running. Regions with comparatively affordable housing markets help attract the nurses, caregivers, hospitality staff and tradespeople needed to make that possible.

As the country’s population ages and grows, strong planning and collaboration is essential. Developers, councils and community groups all have a role in working collaboratively to ensure housing and services meet the needs of older residents while benefiting the wider community. Action needs to be taken soon, with a report from JLL projecting a shortfall of 8326 retirement village units in New Zealand by 2033 if demand continues as it has.

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It is clear that the demographic shift is already here. To keep Aotearoa a place where people can age well, the country must deliver diverse housing options integrated with services and public spaces that help older residents stay independent.

Building for older people today frees up homes for families, supports local employment and strengthens the social fabric. It ensures that the people who built this country can continue to thrive in homes that match the way they want to live now and in the decades ahead.

Aaron Smail is the chief development officer at Summerset.

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