Wellington is forecast to have warmer than average temperatures this summer.
Wellington is forecast to have warmer than average temperatures this summer.
Summer will bring a "light at the end of the tunnel" for Wellingtonians, after the month ends just six minutes shy of the gloomiest November on record.
In its forecast for December the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) projects temperatures to be warmer than average around thecountry, even in the capital.
This follows a November that was close to being the least sunny on record, and a weekend of heavy rainfall that brought flash flooding to communities north of Wellington.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the forecast would be "welcome news for the average Wellingtonian".
"After some ups and downs throughout the first week to 10 days of December, a continued wind speed and occasionally wet weather, it looks like as we reach into mid-December we will see some significant improvement," he said.
Data measured at Kelburn for the month up until November 28 showed Wellington had seen its fourth wettest November on record, with a mean temperature of 13.7C.
While Wellington typically received seven hours of sunshine on a November day, in 2020 it averaged just 4.5 hours.
November had been on track to be the gloomiest in Wellington since records began in 1928, but sunshine hours on Sunday had nudged it over the line by a mere six minutes.
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said November 2020 had only just beaten the gloomiest on record, which was set in 1954.
"Around the middle of the month we did realise that Wellington was tracking pretty poorly in terms of the sunshine hours and the lowest record to beat was 133 hours flat.
"As of Sunday we clocked up 133.1, and I don't think we'll get any more on Monday... it looks like we've just not quite come in as the gloomiest November on record."
While the first week of summer would be "topsy turvy" and parts of the region were still on alert for heavy rain, conditions would settle towards the middle of the month.
"The first few weeks of summer tend to have a strong spring flavour and that is the case this year as well," Ferris said.
"We will see more weather features start to make their way through Wellington, at least in the first week of summer."
The region had been hit with wild weather throughout November, including flash flooding in Plimmerton. Photo / Matt Wood
A change of conditions in the middle of December could also bring the warmer ocean temperatures the rest of the country had been enjoying, Noll said.
"As we see the arrival of some of those more settled conditions, the ocean temperature will heat up around the Cook Strait."
"With the arrival of those warmer temperatures, more sunshine and probably drier weather in the second week of December, that may help to increase those ocean temperatures and make going for a swim a little bit more of a nicer experience".
Although the temperature would likely be warmer, the weather pattern of La Nina could also contribute to higher rainfall in the capital.
"The rainfall patterns through the summer season favour either near normal or above normal rainfall for Wellington," Noll said.
Mid-December should bring more settled conditions, and warm ocean temperatures. Photo / 123RF
"That doesn't mean every single day is going to be wet, in fact there certainly will be some extended dry periods."
La Nina also brought increased risk of ex-tropical cyclones travelling from the Pacific Islands to pass near New Zealand coastline.
"This year we have an expectation of the potential for two ex-tropical cyclones to pass near our coastlines.
"While you can't really speculate on where exactly they will go, overall it increases the chances for heavy rainfall, wind and coastal inundation, if one happens to pass close enough."
